ManlyBacker
Winging it
WHAT, WHERE & WHEN:
First qualifying final (4 v 5), Etihad Stadium, Friday, 7.45pm (EST)
FORM GUIDE (past five matches):
WLLWW (Storm); LWWWW (Sea Eagles)
THE NEXT STEP:
Winners: Both teams have an outside chance of getting a week off if results go their way.
Losers: Such is the quality of the teams below that an early exit is not out of the question.
TALE OF THE TAPE:
Manly have won four straight to hit the finals with some strong momentum, including a last-start crushing of Gold Coast Titans. And one of those wins was achieved against the Storm three weeks ago, when they ground out a 20-16 win at Olympic Park. Melbourne, however, took the honours earlier in the season with a 22-8 victory at Brookvale Oval in round eight. The Storm will enter the game as slight favourites thanks mainly to home-town advantage, as their form over the past month hasn't been as convincing as Manly's.
At various points of the year, both sides have struggled to find the cohesion that saw them feature in the past two grand finals, but their wealth of talent make them sleeping giants in September. Melbourne's biggest concern is in the forwards, with Jeff Lima, Matthew Cross and Sika Manu all under an injury cloud. Manly have one of the most imposing packs in the competition, and they will enter the game at full-strength up front. It is in backline that the Sea Eagles have failed to fire this season. Halfback Matt Orford will have to execute at his best, as Melbourne are ranked No.2 overall in the NRL for defence. Orford's counterpart, Cooper Cronk, has an astute kicking game and will have a huge role to play in turning the big Manly forwards around. Last year's grand final was a landslide, but expect this to be alive at the 75th-minute mark.
KEY MEN:
Greg Inglis (Storm): Inglis has been Manly's tormenter in recent seasons, often making their outside backs look inferior. He played a starring role in Melbourne's round-eight win at Brookvale Oval but he was sidelined for the Sea Eagles' round-24 triumph.
Anthony Watmough (Sea Eagles): Watmough has been knocking opponents over left, right and centre in 2009. If Melbourne's understrength forward pack fail to match it with Manly, the second-rower's power around the fringes might prove too much for the hosts to handle.
IS STAT RIGHT?
The fifth-placed team has beaten the fourth-placed team in the past two finals series. Melbourne have won five of their past six week-one finals matches. Manly's round-24 win at Olympic Park was their first victory in six attempts against the Storm in Melbourne.
MATCH ODDS:
Melbourne Storm $1.85, Manly $1.95 (TAB Sportsbet; 10/9)
LAURIE DALEY SAYS:
"Adam Blair's inclusion is a huge boost for Melbourne because I don't think they would have been much of a chance without him. Manly were very impressive in their performance against the Titans. They played a power game, they controlled possession, and I think Melbourne will struggle to match them up front. The Storm have certainly got a lot of strike power out wide, but this type of game is won through the middle. I think Manly will prevail in this one because they look as though they are starting to hit their straps. Melbourne won't be at Olympic Park, and I think, with the forward power they've got missing at the moment, they'll struggle against a team that is more than solid in that department."
PREDICTION:
Manly by six points
http://www.foxsports.com.au/story/0,8659,26044321-5018866,00.html
First qualifying final (4 v 5), Etihad Stadium, Friday, 7.45pm (EST)
FORM GUIDE (past five matches):
WLLWW (Storm); LWWWW (Sea Eagles)
THE NEXT STEP:
Winners: Both teams have an outside chance of getting a week off if results go their way.
Losers: Such is the quality of the teams below that an early exit is not out of the question.
TALE OF THE TAPE:
Manly have won four straight to hit the finals with some strong momentum, including a last-start crushing of Gold Coast Titans. And one of those wins was achieved against the Storm three weeks ago, when they ground out a 20-16 win at Olympic Park. Melbourne, however, took the honours earlier in the season with a 22-8 victory at Brookvale Oval in round eight. The Storm will enter the game as slight favourites thanks mainly to home-town advantage, as their form over the past month hasn't been as convincing as Manly's.
At various points of the year, both sides have struggled to find the cohesion that saw them feature in the past two grand finals, but their wealth of talent make them sleeping giants in September. Melbourne's biggest concern is in the forwards, with Jeff Lima, Matthew Cross and Sika Manu all under an injury cloud. Manly have one of the most imposing packs in the competition, and they will enter the game at full-strength up front. It is in backline that the Sea Eagles have failed to fire this season. Halfback Matt Orford will have to execute at his best, as Melbourne are ranked No.2 overall in the NRL for defence. Orford's counterpart, Cooper Cronk, has an astute kicking game and will have a huge role to play in turning the big Manly forwards around. Last year's grand final was a landslide, but expect this to be alive at the 75th-minute mark.
KEY MEN:
Greg Inglis (Storm): Inglis has been Manly's tormenter in recent seasons, often making their outside backs look inferior. He played a starring role in Melbourne's round-eight win at Brookvale Oval but he was sidelined for the Sea Eagles' round-24 triumph.
Anthony Watmough (Sea Eagles): Watmough has been knocking opponents over left, right and centre in 2009. If Melbourne's understrength forward pack fail to match it with Manly, the second-rower's power around the fringes might prove too much for the hosts to handle.
IS STAT RIGHT?
The fifth-placed team has beaten the fourth-placed team in the past two finals series. Melbourne have won five of their past six week-one finals matches. Manly's round-24 win at Olympic Park was their first victory in six attempts against the Storm in Melbourne.
MATCH ODDS:
Melbourne Storm $1.85, Manly $1.95 (TAB Sportsbet; 10/9)
LAURIE DALEY SAYS:
"Adam Blair's inclusion is a huge boost for Melbourne because I don't think they would have been much of a chance without him. Manly were very impressive in their performance against the Titans. They played a power game, they controlled possession, and I think Melbourne will struggle to match them up front. The Storm have certainly got a lot of strike power out wide, but this type of game is won through the middle. I think Manly will prevail in this one because they look as though they are starting to hit their straps. Melbourne won't be at Olympic Park, and I think, with the forward power they've got missing at the moment, they'll struggle against a team that is more than solid in that department."
PREDICTION:
Manly by six points
http://www.foxsports.com.au/story/0,8659,26044321-5018866,00.html