Berkeley_Eagle
Current Status: 24/7 Manly Fan
ORIGIN is done and dusted for another year and we now resume normal transmission.
Eight weeks to go, eight spots up for grabs.
And for the first time since 2008, an analysis of the draw reveals that 30 points will probably be required to make the top eight.
The Broncos, Newcastle and Manly have grabbed eighth spot with 28 points in the previous three seasons.
Not this year, because the teams down the bottom like Parramatta are going so badly, the top sides are winning more often.
For the Eels, the season looks like going from bad to worse.
Only a late-year salary cap scandal will stop them from winning their second wooden spoon in two years. Not surprisingly the TAB rates them at $1.15 to finish with the most losses.Here's how I see the rest of the teams.
RABBITOHS (1st)
Even without Greg Inglis, the Bunnies look absolute certainties to win the minor premiership and it's no surprise the TAB has them at $1.20 to collect the J.J. Giltinan Shield.
Have more depth than any other club and will welcome the return of Chris McQueen and Ben Te'o from Origin duty with the Maroons.
ROOSTERS (2nd)
Shouldn't have too much trouble wrapping up second spot considering their outstanding recent form, despite Origin interruptions.
The return of Blues halves Mitch Pearce and James Maloney plus centre Michael Jennings puts them in great shape for the run home.
SEA EAGLES (3rd)
Warming up and finding form at the right time of the year and will welcome back big guns Anthony Watmough and Daly Cherry-Evans.
Have the softest draw of any of the major contenders with four teams outside the top eight in the next month.
STORM (4th)
Have a much-needed bye this week to give Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk, Cameron Smith and Ryan Hoffman time to recover.
They have only three home games left but have the class to lock in a position in the top four after 26 rounds.
BULLDOGS (5th)
Finding form at the business end of the season, as shown with the thumping win over Storm, But may have left their run too late for the top four.
Josh Morris returns from Origin, Ben Barba is ready to explode and having the bye this week will freshen them up for the run home.
SHARKS (6th)
Have the worst for-and-against of all the leading sides but will get Paul Gallen, Andrew Fifita and Luke Lewis back in the next fortnight.
Todd Carney has found some explosive form and Michael Gordon is back from a long injury spell. No sighting of Harold Holt but should make the finals.
KNIGHTS (7th)
Have only three home games in the final eight rounds and face tough on-the-road assignments against Panthers and Roosters in the next two games.
Play the under-performing Broncos twice in the run home, the Cowboys and a "gimme" against the Eels at home before the semi-finals.
MARSHALL OFF TO 'BORING' RUGBY
RAIDERS (8th)
Will need to win five of their last eight games to be assured of making the finals and much could depend on the return of game-breaking centre Blake Ferguson.
The Raiders have five games at home, where they have been almost unbeatable in recent times. Having the Eels and the Dragons in the next two games helps.
PANTHERS (9th)
Without doubt the biggest over-achievers. Gus Gould told us all to be patient because he had a five-year plan but Ivan Cleary has done a wonderful job to lift them into finals contention.
Will find it tougher in the run home now that all their rivals are back to full strength with their Origin players.
WARRIORS (10th)
Have taken advantage of the unlevel playing field that allows the Kiwis to be at full strength while most of their rivals are seriously depleted by Origin commitments.
Capable of upsetting any side on their day but, like Penrith, will find it tougher now that most sides are full strength.
TITANS (11th)
Even the return of Greg Bird and Nate Myles from Origin probably won't be enough to lift them into the finals.
Have only three games left at home and face the Sea Eagles, Rabbitohs and Bulldogs in the next four weeks.
COWBOYS (12th)
Johnathan Thurston is an absolute superstar but not even he can save what has been a disastrous campaign.
They would have to win every game to finish on 30.
The only thing in their favour is that five of their last seven game are at home in Townsville plus the return of Test props Matt Scott and James Tamou.
BRONCOS (13th)
Another club that would need to win every game to make the playoffs and that's not going to happen, even allowing for their softer draw.
Having the bye this week will freshen up their Origin stars but have left their run far too late.DRAGONS (14th)
A terrible season isn't about to get much better.
The Rabbitohs, Raiders and Roosters over the next three weeks is a seriously tough draw.
Steve Price would be better off trialling some new faces and experimenting for next season.
The only positive is playing the Tigers and Eels in the last three rounds.
TIGERS (15th)
Have one of the toughest runs home of any of the 16 clubs. Who would want to play the Sea Eagles, Souths and Roosters at the back end of the season?The Tigers have become far more competitive in recent weeks but don't have the troops to launch a serious charge for eighth position.
EELS (Last)
Who would have thought Parramatta could go any worse than last season when they finished with the wooden spoon.
At least last year they finished the season with 16 competition points.
Even with Jarryd Hayne to make a comeback, I wouldn't be tipping them to win any of their remaining eight games of the season.
