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We won't make the Top 8

Discussion in 'Rugby League Forum' started by Ralphie, Aug 10, 2015.

  1. Ralphie

    Ralphie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I am now grudgingly satisfied with the outcome of this season. Six weeks ago we were favourites for our first spoon and all I wanted then was to avoid the spoon. I believe we have now done that and it is looking like the drugcastle have both hands on that title.

    We won't make the top 8 I'm afraid. I believe we will fall one game short and the loss to Penrith will be the one that got away. Our only hope is to slip past Melbourne. They are on 26 points and play Cronulla (A), Newcastle (H), Nth Qld (H) & Brisbane (A). They will beat Newcastle but could lose the other three to finish on 28 points, which means we will need to win every game from here.

    The run for 7th & 8th is relatively easy and they need to win 2 or 3 of them:
    Canterbury play Titans (A), souffs (A), Newcastle (A) & Warriors (H)
    St George play Brisbane (A), Penrith (H), Titans (A) & Tigers (H)

    I see both winning at least 3 to finish on 30 points and with better for & against than us. The simple answer is we need to win every game from here and have Melbourne lose three to make the 8.

    Sadly, it just won’t happen. @:cry:
     
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    • IQofalimabean

      IQofalimabean Well-Known Member

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      If the nrl want a good final series than manly will make the 8.
       
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      • sheridanstand78

        sheridanstand78 Well-Known Member

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        One week at a time. Lots of things can happen yet. I agree that the back to back narrow defeats to the riff and cows might be the difference.
         
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        • Ralphie

          Ralphie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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          If you disagree with me then tell me who we will go past and what games they will lose. Do you think any of Titans, Newcastle or Warriors will beat Canterbury? Do you think any of Penrith, Titans or Tigers will beat St George?
           
        • Disco

          Disco Well-Known Member

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          at this time of year you can't just bank on the favourites to win, upsets can happen.

          Saints recently lost 7 straight

          we just have to win our games and see where we land
           
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          • bob dylan

            bob dylan Well-Known Member Premium Member 2017 Tipping Competitor

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            You should make a packet betting @Ralphie Seems as though you can predict the outcome of every match in the upcoming weeks..

            Seriously though, I tend to agree with you. It islikely Manly and Souths may not win another game this season (it is also possible they wont lose another game). The Wests Tigers will claim a scalp or two.

            Inconsistent teams like the Dragons and Dogs will drop matches.
             
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              Last edited: Aug 10, 2015
            • Chip and Chase

              Chip and Chase True Supporter Staff Member Administrator Premium Member 2017 Tipping Competitor

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              I agree on tigers, they may cause some havoc. Starting with raiders tonight.
               
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              • bones

                bones Bones Knows

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                That's settled then.
                Nobody go to, or watch any more games.
                 
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                • SeaEagleRock8

                  SeaEagleRock8 Sea Eagle Lach Staff Member Premium Member 2017 Tipping Competitor

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                  A Tiger upset tonight would be huge for us.
                  It would end the Raiders' finals hopes, meaning they'd have a different mindset next week.
                   
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                  • Alby

                    Alby Active Member

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                    It's funny, Tigers can pull off a nice upset when least expected - they have talent.

                    Dragons sound like they are Benji-less for a while, so they could be vulnerable.

                    Dogs hooker Lichaa sounds hurt, but knowing Des, he'll sought something out to keep there charge going.
                     
                  • Boxley

                    Boxley Well-Known Member 2017 Tipping Competitor

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                    Melbourne will finish on 28 points. They will loose to the Sharks,Cowboys and Broncos.

                    I can see Manly, Saints, Rabbits and Bulldogs finishing on 30 points.

                    Rabbits vs Bulldogs is a critical game. If the Rabbits loose to the Bulldogs I think they will only get to 28 points and not win another game this year.

                    If Manly win every game there for and against should dramatically improve and if results went there way they could still make the top 4.
                     
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                    • NYEagle

                      NYEagle Well-Known Member

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                      Ralphie I have been going through the same thought processes and agree it is not going to be easy.
                      Momentum is a big thing though and we have Canberra off a Monday night (although 6 sleeps and staying at home). I'm hoping for an extra time game or a Tigers win to sap their confidence tonight.
                      The other key targets would be Melbourne and surprisingly Souths. The latter has a torrid run home and they could lose the last 4. They have +64 but four losses could evaporate that easily. Even with one loss (if a small one), we could actually catch them at 28 points.
                      They key game is Souths-Bulldogs. If Souths win that we are going after the Bulldogs, but its hard to see the Bulldogs losing any other match so perhaps a bulldogs win is better (Titans, Knights, Warriors).
                      Dragons should lose to the Broncos, and also have the Tigers who are the only bottom 4 team with any pulse left.
                      Like you, I haven't stopped thinking about that Panthers game at Brookvale. If we miss the 8, that was the loss that hurt us most.
                      Staying positive that momentum and through "playing for each other" (brilliant Tooves!) we will keep winning and get in.
                      NYEagle
                       
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                      • Fluffy

                        Fluffy Well-Known Member

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                        upsets will happen, the question will be who?

                        Panthers could help us a lot, especially if they think they can still make it
                         
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                        • bones

                          bones Bones Knows

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                          Three weeks ago, most would have had Manly down for three losses against the Warriors, Broncos and Rabbits. Anything can happen.
                           
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                          • NYEagle

                            NYEagle Well-Known Member

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                            If you were watching the Darwin game, you would write ticks next to all their opponents for the rest of 2015. Players like Soward and Lewis Brown have clearly quit.
                            I have Titans, Panthers, Knights and Warriors as fodder the last four rounds. Pity we aren't playing any of them, which makes it a little harder.
                             
                          • Mark from Brisbane

                            Mark from Brisbane Living the dream Premium Member

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                            This very weekend threw up some upsets , it's not over until the fat lady sings!!

                            But I sort of agree with @Ralphie and I said before the Warriors game that I felt we'd finish a game or two short unless we kept winning and things went our way.

                            Those 1 point losses v Panthers and Cowboys could be very telling .

                            BUT you know what, given our first 16 weeks to even be in the hunt is simply amazing.
                             
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                            • Mals

                              Mals Well-Known Member Premium Member 2017 Tipping Competitor

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                              Sadly i think you are correct. The bl**dy Broncos did us no favours on Friday night....
                               
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                              • Budgewoi Eagle

                                Budgewoi Eagle In for the long haul. Premium Member 2017 Tipping Competitor 2016 Tipping Competitor

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                                I have no idea how anyone can predict what 38 people (34 players + 2 refs + 2 touchies) will do on the field at any given moment in every game. Add to that the video refs. There are 33 games all up before the finals. How could anyone know. Happy to enjoy the ride.
                                 
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                                • Fluffy

                                  Fluffy Well-Known Member

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                                  thats why they are called upsets, no one expects them to win.
                                   
                                • Top End Eagle

                                  Top End Eagle Well-Known Member Premium Member 2017 Tipping Competitor

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                                  If manly don't lose any they could make it. If we lose one we won't. Very slim chances.
                                   
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