2024 Optimist/Pessimist Thread - How are you feeling?

[Disco]

If the Roosters put a score on us on the weekend the wrist slashers will be back in force on Monday -calling for Siebs head, recruitment suck eg Paulo and Talau are rubbish…..

100%

Nothing like a good old fashion trial over reaction

 

[jbb/james]

100%

Nothing like a good old fashion trial over reaction

Yeah look at last year after we win the pre season

 

[Ryan]

The stats aren't exactly working in our favour.

Last year we had one of the most bog ugly seasons statistically in the forwards (probably last overall on an aggregated basis across the metrics). I get there's a mountain of excuse & excuse makers.

We've been rarely sighted in the top half of the league for a decade, and have struggled against top 8 teams, almost hardly ever beat top 4 teams (as the standings go at seasons end).

Opposition teams target our middles when they want to pump us, and good teams have run down huge leads to run over the top of, & beat us recently.

Has our recruitment done enough to rectify / nullify this ? I personally don't think so.

We have a raft of forwards returning from illness or injury (at various stages). We still have 0 ex factor from dummy half. Apart from one solitary season, check out end of season standings with Croker distributing the ball. We still have a lot of unknowns.

Look at our start to the year (first 6-7 rounds). I think people are setting themselves up for a whole world of pain and misery if they are expecting success straight away.

That said, there have been a few posters already indicating they are going to get into who and what they call naysayers, so this is the last I'll say on it, and I'll join the merry men, and just sing praises through our struggles.

Sorry this is going against the trend here

I'll stick to 12th-15th.

 

[BOZO]

Sorry this is going against the trend here

I'll stick to 12th-15th.

Missing the finals is not the Manly Way
Never apologize for having Manly High Standards
and Hang your Bloody Head in Shame for accepting Manly Mediocrity

 

[Disco]

I love this thread as an interesting follow.

However, it is inherently flawed as optimistic and pessimistic changes from person to person based on the individual and their baseline of expectation.

For example two fans might see us finishing 7th-9th. One may deem that optimistic the other pessimistic.

One persons naysayer in anothers realistic, and one persons realistic may be anothers merry man.

For me, I consider myself optimstic. I think we can make the 8 and if all things magically align we could make the 4.

The keys words there are 'can' and 'could'.....for all the chances of Brooks slipping in seemlessly, Schu stepping up, Haumole, Tola and Paseka continuing to step forward and Tom staying injury free there is also the chance Tom breaks down, Schu is in and out of firsts, Brooks is a square peg and injuries hit.

But....what is the fun in being glum. So optimistic it is!

 

[BOZO]

But....what is the fun in being glum. So optimistic it is!

Love your work @Disco !

 

[Ryan]

I love this thread as an interesting follow.

However, it is inherently flawed as optimistic and pessimistic changes from person to person based on the individual and their baseline of expectation.

For example two fans might see us finishing 7th-9th. One may deem that optimistic the other pessimistic.

One persons naysayer in anothers realistic, and one persons realistic may be anothers merry man.

For me, I consider myself optimstic. I think we can make the 8 and if all things magically align we could make the 4.

The keys words there are 'can' and 'could'.....for all the chances of Brooks slipping in seemlessly, Schu stepping up, Haumole, Tola and Paseka continuing to step forward and Tom staying injury free there is also the chance Tom breaks down, Schu is in and out of firsts, Brooks is a square peg and injuries hit.

But....what is the fun in being glum. So optimistic it is!

Can I just also say, in respect to what I've written, I "HOPE" I'm terribly ****ing wrong , and that we go undefeated and destroy every team we play, teaching them a lesson in pain and suffering along the way.

 

[JakeyB789]

Quietly optimistic for now but will have a stronger opinion after Vegas. We haven't beaten Souffs in an NRL game since the start of 2019 and seem to either get flogged or robbed against them every time. They might come out firing with the way they ended last year + after what we did to their 3rd grade side over the weekend, but they are missing Wighton, Graham & Munro from their backline whilst we will be full strength.

Great chance to make a statement in the first game of the year and show we are a different side to the one that has continually struggled against these better sides in recent years. If we flop in a game like this again I wouldn't feel too confident in any of the run of games after (Roosters, Eels/Dragons away, Panthers, Warriors/GC away, Eels). Win a bunch of these and top four is definitely not out of the question, there isn't a lot separating the teams after Penrith/Broncos and the bottom teams

 

[Harmless27]

Some interesting opinions already.
I am almost generally optimistic, as I don't have time to mope - but totally understand we are all individuals.
Top 8 is a minimum expectation for the year for me - and if we get a good run of injuries, I expect top 4.... miss the 8, and I will be very disappointed

 

[Disco]

As an aside, I do think this season will be absolutely wild.

If I sit down objectively, I reckon I can make a case that 14-15 of the teams should improve or at least maintain their position, with only the Dragons and Canberra looking grim (I'm 50/50 on the Bulddogs).

Now that math doesn't work and not all clubs can improve so it is going to be a cracker year IMO

 

[The '47ers]

I've been optimistic every February since I can remember.

 

[Sheikheagle]

I am generally optimistic and that’s the way I have voted. However, like us there are several bottom 8 teams with similar cause to be optimistic this year so it will be a very close comp.

 

[Bearfax]

Potential there to challenge for the title, as long as they can keep the class players on the field.. If they do, I think this side can challenge for a top 4 position. Very fast talented backs. Some forwards emerging to support the two stars Jake and Olakau'atu. I suspect we'll see Burbo finally establish himself as worthy to carry forward the Trbojevic name. Schuster has the goods to be a star, Just needs a little injury luck and determination. Potentially those two and Ola could form a top tier back row. I like a player with mongrel and look forward to Lodge getting back to support Paseka. Bully is on the rise. Gordie and Humph look likely to challenge for the hooker's post and finally get more then solid defense there. I'm hoping DCE-Brookes combination produces what I think can be a game breaker for Manly. The signs are there.. A little luck and good structures and defense and I think they can do as good as 2021 and given the rising talent, potentially better. It looks a better side than 2021

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

I would concur that a lot of teams have improved , so it’s not like we are the only one on the improve which will see us jump 7 spots, we’ve improved but so have many others.

The reason I’m optimistic, is it’s February, and we haven’t lost a run of games yet , maybe ask me again in April as we really do have a horror start to season 24.

In answer to @Ryan yes I hope you’re wrong , but sadly for a fair while you’ve been bang on.

However one of the very big reasons you could be wrong mate is , and finally , after a string of years there really does seem to be competition for spots.

Who is guaranteed

DCE
Brooks
Jurbo
Turbo
Garrick
Big O
Croker ( he wouldn’t be a guarantee with me coach but I reckon Seibs will pick him every week based around his work ethic).
Saab
Koula

To me that leaves 4 run on spots ( one a winger ) & 4 bench spots very much up for competition.

Assume Jake is prop

You then have Lodge , Paseka , Sipley , AOA & my man Bully fighting for one run on spot.

Who partners Big O in the second row ?? Strangely , Burbo might be the man.

And you’d assume there’s quite a few vying for lock, Schuster / Brown the front runners.

Then the bench,

Obviously two more big men
Then maybe you have Humphreys / Arthur / Gordie
And possibly Lawton who can be a bit of a put anywhere man.

But for those 8 spots there’s literally the rest of the top 30 all fighting for the spots and most of them will do a good job.

And that’s the difference from say 2-3 years ago @Ryan and where I think we have actually improved.

I’m confident , but ask me again in 2 months or so.

 

[mave]

100% optimistic.

It's all sunshine, rainbows and lollipops.

 

[Seagles68]

Having read all the posts, I reckon most, if not all, are correct.

Have we all been confident in Feb and been burned - yep
Are we worried Turbo will get injured and drop us out of the 8- yep
Have we mostly recruited players that were unwanted, battling to get out of reggies, carry a bit of baggage and/or are from worse performing clubs that us - yep
Is there still a huge ? over Shu - yep
Am I worried about the defence of Rubes in the centres - particularly if there is some kind of combo like Brooks, Shu, Rubes and Saab - yep

But I agree with all the optimistic comments about depth and Brooks and Burbo and a fit looking Turbo and Lodge and Brown adding some starch to a pack that still has Paseka and Guac and Jakey. And I like the back ups for Crokes.

And I can't wait to see Tolu - I think he's going to set the place alight.

So optimistic it is!

Until I'm not

 

[Bloke on the hill]

I'm thinking 6th-10th.
For me it's all about Tom. If he plays the team gains confidence & improves.
I'm liking Seibs, he saw weaknesses in'23 & has brought in new players to hopefully rectify them.
That's a big step in the right direction.
It's only been one trial against weak opposition, but hey, so far, so good!

 

[Phobia]

If we don't make the 8, Seibold's career as a head coach is done. Additionally, it will immediately call for a rebuild. We would need to drop any ambition of a premiership while DCE is still here if that happens. Possibly Jake and Turbo too, because whether you like it or not, Jake's 30 and the only way from there is up, and if we didn't make the 8, Turbo would have to be injured in that case. Turbo is one of the rare Andrew Johns types of player - he can lift everyone around him to premiership quality, when he is on the field. As much as it hurts, he might need to consider medical retirement for the team and himself if he can never play a full season again. Koula, Haumole, and possibly Schuster, if he succeeds, would be our future. Ironically, the fruits of Fulton's move westward would be the players to rebuild the club around, just as the club is seemingly dropping the west. I don't want to imagine that scenario just yet, but it's important that if we don't make the 8 this year, Seibold has to go, and the club must do something it hasn't done in a long time; trust a coach for an extended period of time, through losses, until finally that dream pays off. When your Bob Fulton's aren't on the market, that's the route to premiership success. Sticking to a plan and a vision (growing juniors like Penrith, Des 5 year plan, etc), enduring the pain, knowing it will pay off. Don't ever start a rebuild under an idiot and then sack him. If anyone but Des came in 2019, Barrett's mess would've probably gotten us a spoon.

But I believe that we will make the 8. That's what the minimum, what the standard has to be.

If you go through our issues over the past few years, there have been several issues that I believe Seibold has directly targeted and done his best to mitigate.

1. Fading, in both games, and in the season:

- Physical Side​

Seibold has brought in the new performance coach from Rugby, the tough nut Pom, and clearly, looking at the players, hearing the media reports, everyone does seem fitter. Turbo fastest he's been in two years, Schuster dropping weight and running nearly every day, Aitasi James and Talau trimming weight, Garrick bulking up for Centre, etc. There clearly has been significant change. This is one side of it, and may also have a factor on limiting injuries down the track too.​

- Mental Side​

Seibold has been in many clubs with strong team cultures, for example Melbourne. In these clubs, the desire for success isn't commanded top-down, like under Des previously, instead it's embedded within the culture of the club. There's a clear adjustment in attitude this year. For example, Sipley saying end of last year, after being dropped, that "the most valuable lesson I’ve learnt is that it all falls on me." In that same article, he referred to JC's aforementioned training system and the fitness systems he introduced. But these lines are the most telling:​

​

As for the 2024 season, Sipley said there was definitely a ‘vibe’ about what the team can achieve, but stopped short at predictions.“I don’t want to dive too much into it because actions speak louder than words,’’ Sipley added.“We have got something to prove. We have underperformed since 2021.“We have got the team to do it. But again, actions speak louder than words. All I can say is ‘watch us’.”​

​

Also Saab and co's quotes in I think a Zero Tackle article recently (?), saying that they've been playing to their strengths since the Panthers game. That's when we were most competitive. Something that hasn't been said here, but under the changed 2024 rules, the two games we had to win, we were now ofiicially robbed. Panthers obstruction after the Garrick kicking duel would've been a penalty to us, if it was this year. Garrick getting taken out against the Warriors would've also been a penalty to us, if it was this year. Both of those incidents, we were locked up in score. Both of those incidents led to tries for the other sides. If that didn't happen, there might've been 4 competiton points to us, and against the top 4, two weeks in a row. We would've made the finals. They want to continue that style of playing, and that is a major difference. That's the footy the players want to play, and enjoyed playing, and we were the best there.​

​

I know "Manly mentality" is pretty overused by now, but that truly is the difference. Staying in the game, the players knowing that the results are dependent on the playing group and themselves, that is probably the most important change Seibold has made. Bringing in the old crop that lived this concept and mentality, in the form of Choc, Snake, etc, is a great move. That culture works for Melbourne, and their teams in structure stand pretty similar to ours. Not like a crop of juniors such as Penrith, that have been playing for years together, but a mix of random players, with some superstars, but with massive pressure on themselves, from themselves, to perform.​

​

2. Kelma Tuilagi - self explanatory.

3. Depth - massive improvement, but must be noted that DCE contract dropped in the way of about 400k, and the salary cap increased. That was probably the difference, and had Des still been coach I'd say he'd be expanding too.

4. Morgan Harper - His time was up here.

5. Schuster at 5/8 - Never worked under Seibold. Clearly he didn't want him there from the beginning, with Seibold being interested in Brooks from the Tigers win against the Cowboys in May, onwards. Controversial opinion, but I believe that Schuster would've suceeded under Des at 5/8. I don't believe its a coincidence that his best games at 5/8th were at the beginning of the season. It's almost like they gave up on coaching him, and I can understand why they would, but Des would've micromanaged Schuster to hell and back. But this isn't a question anymore, and Brooks is a good player.

6. Hooker - Remains to be seen in all honesty, but we have two great prospects in GCKT and Humphreys. Croker's defence is elite. Croker should've never been an 80 minute player, but we have options now. If Croker's defence can be matched with the (potentially) great attack of GCKT or Humphreys, that will fix our issues.

7. Lock - Nathan Brown, Aitasi James, Corey Waddell. A few options to fight for a bench spot. Jake starting in the middle at 13 is neccesary though, and Seibold recognises that. His defence there is world-class and game-winning, and is important in holding out fresh middles at the beginning. He'll more likely push to prop if these guys come off the bench.

8. Injuries - The investment in fitness may help, and I believe that's likely one of the reasons JC was brought in, to in any way possible aleivate the potential for injury.

9. Forwards - I think we are still looking for a marquee prop, e.g. our interest in AFB earlier. I don't believe we could find one. In the meantime, Keppie has left, as has his defence and ball-dropping, and Aloiai is under pressure to perform. Lodge and Brown are what we can muster in the meantime, until a new prop is found. Don't discount Seibold's development of Paseka either. Sipley was also a statistical leader by the end. It's an improvement.

10. Seibold - I'm still not convinced. He's on paper crossed all of the issues out, or at least smudged them a bit. If there is any faliure this year, even without Tom, to make the 8, there is two people to blame, and only two. Seibold, and Penn for picking him. Unlike Des in 2022, or Seibs inheriting Schuster at 5/8 last year, from the onset this season, its him and him alone who is responsible for the outcome.

I'm cautiously optimistic. If we're doing crap through our shocking first half of the season draw, bring in Tooves from next door to coach.

EDIT: For reference, I thought we would be spoon contenders at the beginning of last season.

 

[Go manly]

Optimistic enough that sports bet would not accept my bet
Had to get others to out it on and odds changed the ge same afternoon
1000 to make 8 @ 2.60
350 to make 4 @ 6.50
100 to win GF @ 26.00

Current odds to make 8 are 2.40
specials in my book and will cover the optimistic lay out

Tip 2
Dragons for must improved on points last year
But really happy to see them last

Storm to drop out of 4

Go manly says
Go manly
BTW
Hoping it pays for Vegas

 

[Go manly]

If we don't make the 8, Seibold's career as a head coach is done. Additionally, it will immediately call for a rebuild. We would need to drop any ambition of a premiership while DCE is still here if that happens. Possibly Jake and Turbo too, because whether you like it or not, Jake's 30 and the only way from there is up, and if we didn't make the 8, Turbo would have to be injured in that case. Turbo is one of the rare Andrew Johns types of player - he can lift everyone around him to premiership quality, when he is on the field. As much as it hurts, he might need to consider medical retirement for the team and himself if he can never play a full season again. Koula, Haumole, and possibly Schuster, if he succeeds, would be our future. Ironically, the fruits of Fulton's move westward would be the players to rebuild the club around, just as the club is seemingly dropping the west. I don't want to imagine that scenario just yet, but it's important that if we don't make the 8 this year, Seibold has to go, and the club must do something it hasn't done in a long time; trust a coach for an extended period of time, through losses, until finally that dream pays off. When your Bob Fulton's aren't on the market, that's the route to premiership success. Sticking to a plan and a vision (growing juniors like Penrith, Des 5 year plan, etc), enduring the pain, knowing it will pay off. Don't ever start a rebuild under an idiot and then sack him. If anyone but Des came in 2019, Barrett's mess would've probably gotten us a spoon.

But I believe that we will make the 8. That's what the minimum, what the standard has to be.

If you go through our issues over the past few years, there have been several issues that I believe Seibold has directly targeted and done his best to mitigate.

1. Fading, in both games, and in the season:

- Physical Side​

Seibold has brought in the new performance coach from Rugby, the tough nut Pom, and clearly, looking at the players, hearing the media reports, everyone does seem fitter. Turbo fastest he's been in two years, Schuster dropping weight and running nearly every day, Aitasi James and Talau trimming weight, Garrick bulking up for Centre, etc. There clearly has been significant change. This is one side of it, and may also have a factor on limiting injuries down the track too.​

- Mental Side​

Seibold has been in many clubs with strong team cultures, for example Melbourne. In these clubs, the desire for success isn't commanded top-down, like under Des previously, instead it's embedded within the culture of the club. There's a clear adjustment in attitude this year. For example, Sipley saying end of last year, after being dropped, that "the most valuable lesson I’ve learnt is that it all falls on me." In that same article, he referred to JC's aforementioned training system and the fitness systems he introduced. But these lines are the most telling:​

​

As for the 2024 season, Sipley said there was definitely a ‘vibe’ about what the team can achieve, but stopped short at predictions.“I don’t want to dive too much into it because actions speak louder than words,’’ Sipley added.“We have got something to prove. We have underperformed since 2021.“We have got the team to do it. But again, actions speak louder than words. All I can say is ‘watch us’.”​

​

Also Saab and co's quotes in I think a Zero Tackle article recently (?), saying that they've been playing to their strengths since the Panthers game. That's when we were most competitive. Something that hasn't been said here, but under the changed 2024 rules, the two games we had to win, we were now ofiicially robbed. Panthers obstruction after the Garrick kicking duel would've been a penalty to us, if it was this year. Garrick getting taken out against the Warriors would've also been a penalty to us, if it was this year. Both of those incidents, we were locked up in score. Both of those incidents led to tries for the other sides. If that didn't happen, there might've been 4 competiton points to us, and against the top 4, two weeks in a row. We would've made the finals. They want to continue that style of playing, and that is a major difference. That's the footy the players want to play, and enjoyed playing, and we were the best there.​

​

I know "Manly mentality" is pretty overused by now, but that truly is the difference. Staying in the game, the players knowing that the results are dependent on the playing group and themselves, that is probably the most important change Seibold has made. Bringing in the old crop that lived this concept and mentality, in the form of Choc, Snake, etc, is a great move. That culture works for Melbourne, and their teams in structure stand pretty similar to ours. Not like a crop of juniors such as Penrith, that have been playing for years together, but a mix of random players, with some superstars, but with massive pressure on themselves, from themselves, to perform.​

​

2. Kelma Tuilagi - self explanatory.

3. Depth - massive improvement, but must be noted that DCE contract dropped in the way of about 400k, and the salary cap increased. That was probably the difference, and had Des still been coach I'd say he'd be expanding too.

4. Morgan Harper - His time was up here.

5. Schuster at 5/8 - Never worked under Seibold. Clearly he didn't want him there from the beginning, with Seibold being interested in Brooks from the Tigers win against the Cowboys in May, onwards. Controversial opinion, but I believe that Schuster would've suceeded under Des at 5/8. I don't believe its a coincidence that his best games at 5/8th were at the beginning of the season. It's almost like they gave up on coaching him, and I can understand why they would, but Des would've micromanaged Schuster to hell and back. But this isn't a question anymore, and Brooks is a good player.

6. Hooker - Remains to be seen in all honesty, but we have two great prospects in GCKT and Humphreys. Croker's defence is elite. Croker should've never been an 80 minute player, but we have options now. If Croker's defence can be matched with the (potentially) great attack of GCKT or Humphreys, that will fix our issues.

7. Lock - Nathan Brown, Aitasi James, Corey Waddell. A few options to fight for a bench spot. Jake starting in the middle at 13 is neccesary though, and Seibold recognises that. His defence there is world-class and game-winning, and is important in holding out fresh middles at the beginning. He'll more likely push to prop if these guys come off the bench.

8. Injuries - The investment in fitness may help, and I believe that's likely one of the reasons JC was brought in, to in any way possible aleivate the potential for injury.

9. Forwards - I think we are still looking for a marquee prop, e.g. our interest in AFB earlier. I don't believe we could find one. In the meantime, Keppie has left, as has his defence and ball-dropping, and Aloiai is under pressure to perform. Lodge and Brown are what we can muster in the meantime, until a new prop is found. Don't discount Seibold's development of Paseka either. Sipley was also a statistical leader by the end. It's an improvement.

10. Seibold - I'm still not convinced. He's on paper crossed all of the issues out, or at least smudged them a bit. If there is any faliure this year, even without Tom, to make the 8, there is two people to blame, and only two. Seibold, and Penn for picking him. Unlike Des in 2022, or Seibs inheriting Schuster at 5/8 last year, from the onset this season, its him and him alone who is responsible for the outcome.

I'm cautiously optimistic. If we're doing crap through our shocking first half of the season draw, bring in Tooves from next door to coach.

EDIT: For reference, I thought we would be spoon contenders at the beginning of last season.

There is definitely a an old school manly influence that our season is based on
Your post to me is verified by conversations with some that are close
If choc tooves snake are excited
So am I
Go manly says
Go manly