Deeper Analysis

[Snake]

First 15 mins:

• NRL a joke. Klein sees Keppie stumbling and clearly a HIA concern but due to criticism from week before, plays on.
• Campbell Graham knock-on not called to gift Souths another fatigue inducing set on Manly line.
• Manly start two sets 10m out; one of which contained only 1 run from a forward (Schuster who made 3 metres). Kick inside own half, Souths start multiple sets from 30m and get a 6 to go off a Harper touch after an attacking raid inside our 40m.
• Costly one on one miss on Gagai from Harper after a good read in defence. Gagai kicks for first Bunnies try.

Next 15:

• finally get the ball and play risky short side with Saab into touch. Needed to hold the ball and build pressure.
• Forwards actually do a good job for next 5 mins. Dylan Walker line speed is excellent.
• DCE earns high shot penalty. We are well in the contest at this point.
• Suli obstruction costs us try (no way Reynolds stops the try but rule is black and white). 6 points begging. We score here and who knows what happens next. Instead, Souths get penalty and start another fatigue inducing set inside our half and earn a repeat set off the back off it.
• Jake gives away set restart after Cook starts playing off back of ruck speed. Forwards starting to look fatigued in D.
• poor read from Saab who didn’t trust Harper leaves open window for Alex J to score. All off the back of weight of possession.
• Haumole steal finally gives us ball. Tom bombs try off back of it. Should be 12-6 and in the game. Instead 7 tackle set with Souths rucking it all the way into our 20 (really poor line speed and a bad read down an edge give Souths opportunity to put in attacking kick and get a lucky 6 more off Haumole failing to clean up grubber). Part luck, part poor defence to concede so many metres. Campbell Graham held up in ensuing set.
• we only manage 30m gain...clearly fatigued. Souths start set in good field position again allowing for an attacking kick. Tom fails to attack bomb, battered back and poor miss from Harper gives Cook the kick for the Walker try.

Game was lost in this 15 minute block IMO. No punch with the ball, bombed tries and no line speed to stop Souths marching into good field position. Forwards really struggled in defence during this period.

Final 10:

• one of our better sets with the ball gives Souths ball back inside own 10m zone. However, line speed not great as Reynolds bombs from 40m out and we ruck from own 10m again.
• DCE into touch of risky short side play. Have to say it was probably a good play and just stumbled. Bit of bad luck here. In saying that, at 18-0 down, do we need to throw that offload inside our own half? Still, Souths have good ball again. Thankfully they make an error due to good pressure from Harper and we get ball back.
• earn set restart and poor error from DCE as he is smashed and drops it cold. Souths run 30m and are in attacking field position again.
• really poor read from Suli gifts Paulo try. At 22-0 in a prelim, the game is over.

I could analyse the second half but at 22-0, the game is done at this point and everything else that happens is a by product of score board pressure. The forced Tom T pass to Harper is a classic example. Campbell Graham scored off the back of it. Another poor read from Suli (with help from Foran).

So, I’m gonna retract my criticism of the forwards. I think they played as well as can be expected given the amount of tackling they had to do. It seems the extravagant style of play and lack of composure and leadership cost us more than anything. We simply use the ball too much and go wide too often. Not to mention when you go wide and get shut down, you gotta ruck it back to the middle off long passing to centre the play again...this does not help build momentum.

 

[KaZa]

100%. Good assessment. Totally agree.

I think it all went wrong when Des started using Walker as a prop and dropped Sipley. Sipley was effective with his runs. So Walker plays 13 and Jake plays prop. Jake is too small and has no leg drive to be a prop. So effectively playing one prop and going wide early.. worked against the lesser sides. Against the best.. you need to do the basics.

 

[Snake]

100%. Good assessment. Totally agree.

I think it all went wrong when Des started using Walker as a prop and dropped Sipley. Sipley was effective with his runs. So Walker plays 13 and Jake plays prop. Jake is too small and has no leg drive to be a prop. So effectively playing one prop and going wide early.. worked against the lesser sides. Against the best.. you need to do the basics.

Yeah the basics is a big one. Keppie offload was low %. Haumole offload for DCE into touch was low %. Short side to Saab into touch was low %. Play keeps breaking down off these shifts and we gift possession and field position which fatigues the side and that’s all she wrote!

 

[Snake]

I’m gonna say that if we can play a more % based brand of footy, we have the cattle already, providing Schuster, Harper and Saab all get stronger from having a full year of FG. The latter two have caused some real concerns in defence that appear to be the fault of no one else but themselves and not a byproduct of anything else happening around the mechanics of the side. Ditto Suli but he is going.

 

[eagle66]

Great commentary silvertails.
Fair and honest assessment.

 

[Briza]

A good side will win a prelim with 16 points, Our Defense has been abysmal the last 6 weeks or so and needs to be our cornerstone this coming pre season.

 

[PONTIAN SEA EAGLE]

Do we have a new technical coach now.

 

[Snake]

Do we have a new technical coach now.

No just a devastated fan who has too much time on his hands lol

 

[Mals]

Was the make up of the bench wrong for this game? We lacked some forward grunt which was not helped when Keppie was wiped out. Would it not have been better to have an extra prop on the bench such as Sipley rather than carry a “luxury utility” like Lawton? HIAs and injuries occur regularly, particularly for forwards and it feels like we didn’t plan for it.

 

[manlyfan76]

We needed to earn the right to do so many low % plays which we didn't.

 

[Shoe1]

Those extra sets of six were killers. And it kept happening, our blokes would get a touch in desperation.

 

[maxta]

Live at the game Snake, I noticed a simple but important factor from the opening whistle to full time.
Just like the Storm game we didn't play finals footy.
Both Storm in finals 1 and South's last night were allowed to defend well inside the 10 all night and extra time in that ruck, whilst Manly didn't take advantage of the finals factor which basically cost them 15-20m every set and a big reason they held advantage with field position when the game was an arm wrestle....along with the fact they controlled time in the tackle and ultimately the momentum through that vital ruck area.
Some of South's play the ball we're like touch footy and though tries were scored out wide giving an illusion it was poor wide defence - the rot started at that play the ball (though again some panic reads out wide were evident)
It was like they knew how to scrap better and do the ugly things better.
The loss of Keppie was bigger than 1 would think also....his early presence was notable and the middle softened badly without him.
It was almost a replica of 2005 just before Manly matured and becam the Juggernaut of the NRL....just a bit off....and the finals series showed it....agree the cattle is there, but unfortunately not quite ripe enough....2022 will be better for it, we have a serious footy side to follow in coming years - all will be good

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

Half time possession

South’s 64% Manly 36%

Says it all really.

 

[Snake]

Live at the game Snake, I noticed a simple but important factor from the opening whistle to full time.
Just like the Storm game we didn't play finals footy.
Both Storm in finals 1 and South's last night were allowed to defend well inside the 10 all night and extra time in that ruck, whilst Manly didn't take advantage of the finals factor which basically cost them 15-20m every set and a big reason they held advantage with field position when the game was an arm wrestle....along with the fact they controlled time in the tackle and ultimately the momentum through that vital ruck area.
Some of South's play the ball we're like touch footy and though tries were scored out wide giving an illusion it was poor wide defence - the rot started at that play the ball (though again some panic reads out wide were evident)
It was like they knew how to scrap better and do the ugly things better.
The loss of Keppie was bigger than 1 would think also....his early presence was notable and the middle softened badly without him.
It was almost a replica of 2005 just before Manly matured and becam the Juggernaut of the NRL....just a bit off....and the finals series showed it....agree the cattle is there, but unfortunately not quite ripe enough....2022 will be better for it, we have a serious footy side to follow in coming years - all will be good

Great post Maxta. Makes a lot of sense.

 

[manlyfan76]

Kept saying we needed to go earlier when moving up in defence, Souths were quicker and always got numbers in defence.

 

[davohan123]

Yep agree @Snake With your analysis

Just went and watched the replay on kayo

Sat through the whole match.

We never gave ourselves a chance.
The errors and miss tries were costly


We were in that game for the first 25 minutes and had our opportunities but couldn't take them.

That was my 2nd preliminary final manly had lost in my lifetime.

That was harder to take than a GF loss when u are so close. Can see why souths wanted to win it more last night 3 PF defeats in 3 years hope we don't go down that path.

 

[QueefRichards]

Our team lacked composure to play the low percentage options at the right times.

 

[KNUCKLES]

One thing I notice we do alot in defense which really gets on my tits is when were on our goal line and a grubber gets put through players stick out a lazy leg to try and trap the ball often leading to a six again or a try. Yes I know it's instinctive, but you have to trust your fullback is in position to cover any points being scored from it. A line drop out and a little rest is much better than a six again 5 metres out

 

[The Wheel]

The lack of forward power play is interesting in the fact what do we do with the Shoe and Jake in the future.

Shoe is all class with the ball, plays wide but rarely takes a hard hit up - with Keppie gone early this was more evident. Is he really going to be a forward long term? I think getting him to 5/8 throughout next year at some stage is required despite what Foz does.

Jake - exceptional defense and good with ball but his hit ups are generally average (seems to tippy toe into the line) - he needs to see Tom’s sprint coach and widened his stride in the off-season.

We a short an aggressive forward or 2 plus we really need a class centre - Parker is Parker and reliable, after a good start Harper didn’t deliver in the finals and was poor to be honest. All our great teams have top line centre - Lyon, Bell, Hill, O’Connor, Gartner, Fulton.

Froggy is another solid performer but is a class below Grant, Cheese, Cook and probably Api. Fainu adds another dimension to our side when and if available - what do we do in the meantime? We need variation and smart decisions at dummy half to give us more go forward and space against these top teams.

Interesting off-season coming with recruitment in key positions critical I feel which will add to an already above average young squad.

 

[Red Pill]

I’m gonna say that if we can play a more % based brand of footy, we have the cattle already, providing Schuster, Harper and Saab all get stronger from having a full year of FG. The latter two have caused some real concerns in defence that appear to be the fault of no one else but themselves and not a byproduct of anything else happening around the mechanics of the side. Ditto Suli but he is going.

Agree 100%. % style of play is Dessie’s trademark but once the game opened up .ie. six gain rule etc we got flogged especially in 2019. It’s like we have gone completely in the opposite direction. We need to find a better balance in 2022. Trust Dessie is working on it right now.