Blowing the Whistle on em

[Jatz Crackers]

Points of Note:

* Manly have received 102 penalties in total while our opposition have received 125 penalties. Doesn’t sound a great deal in a stat but it is actually a 123% loading gifted to our opposition.

* More telling is that Manly have played 16 games and have lost the penalty count on 12 occasions. Drawn equal on the penalty count on 3 occasions and won the penalty count only once. So of the 13 occasions the penalty count was not even we lost at an astonishing rate of 92%

* Of the 11 occasions there was an uneven penalty count in the first half Manly lost that battle with the refs at the rate of 82% (9 occasions)

* Manly have incurred 2 sin bins during the past 18 rounds while our opposition have incurred one

* So from where I sit this Manly team is winning well despite a huge disadvantage courtesy of inept or biased performances by the officials

PDF (Excel) Spreadsheet showing stats (hopefully attached)

Red indicates negative result
Green indicates positive result
Black indicates neutral result

 

[The Eagle Has Landed]

Wow you have gone to some work there. Well done mate

 

[Kevinward777]

Points of Note:

* Manly have received 102 penalties in total while our opposition have received 125 penalties. Doesn’t sound a great deal in a stat but it is actually a 123% loading gifted to our opposition.

* More telling is that Manly have played 16 games and have lost the penalty count on 12 occasions. Drawn equal on the penalty count on 3 occasions and won the penalty count only once. So of the 13 occasions the penalty count was not even we lost at an astonishing rate of 92%

* Of the 11 occasions there was an uneven penalty count in the first half Manly lost that battle with the refs at the rate of 82% (9 occasions)

* Manly have incurred 2 sin bins during the past 18 rounds while our opposition have incurred one

* So from where I sit this Manly team is winning well despite a huge disadvantage courtesy of inept or biased performances by the officials

PDF (Excel) Spreadsheet showing stats (hopefully attached)

Red indicates negative result
Green indicates positive result
Black indicates neutral result

Nice work mate:

 

[MissKate]

Points of Note:

* Manly have received 102 penalties in total while our opposition have received 125 penalties. Doesn’t sound a great deal in a stat but it is actually a 123% loading gifted to our opposition.

* More telling is that Manly have played 16 games and have lost the penalty count on 12 occasions. Drawn equal on the penalty count on 3 occasions and won the penalty count only once. So of the 13 occasions the penalty count was not even we lost at an astonishing rate of 92%

* Of the 11 occasions there was an uneven penalty count in the first half Manly lost that battle with the refs at the rate of 82% (9 occasions)

* Manly have incurred 2 sin bins during the past 18 rounds while our opposition have incurred one

* So from where I sit this Manly team is winning well despite a huge disadvantage courtesy of inept or biased performances by the officials

PDF (Excel) Spreadsheet showing stats (hopefully attached)

Red indicates negative result
Green indicates positive result
Black indicates neutral result

Appreciate your info, I guess no surprise to any of us Manly fans. However what exacerbates those numbers is when in the tackle count we receive penalties or are penalised- that is the real killer. It is a major achievement when we receive a penalty on the third-fifth tackle, but suspect most of the ones we receive are on the first & second tackle. However our opponents usually seem to get the benefit of a penalty late in the tackle count - that sways the benefit significantly

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

It's also the when and where issue , many of the penalties we get come from having two absolute guns at forcing restarts, so the opposition fight hard to defend the line often giving away multiple penalties.

Many of the penalties against us are on tackle 4 or 5 as the opppsition is marching it up.

 

[Rodo]

You also need to break it down to whether the penalties were warranted or not or whether they were 50-50 calls. And then the same for the opposition. But all this would be too hard to do.

Sure Manly were hard done by with a lot of penalties against them on Saturday but their discipline did not help. For example, Wright and Kelly went on far too long tackling DWZ. Lussick was offside at the play the ball trying to get back at the Penrith player after he had hit Lussick hard in the set earlier. This is extremely dumb play and something Lussick needs get out of his game. And didn't Taupau do something similar to get a penalty against him?

 

[StuBoot]

You also need to break it down to whether the penalties were warranted or not or whether they were 50 % calls. And then the same for the opposition. But all this would be too hard to do.

Sure Manly were hard done by with a lot of penalties against them on Saturday but their discipline did not help. For example, Wright and Kelly went on far too long tackling DWZ. Lussick was offside at the play the ball trying to get back at the Penrith player after he had hit Lussick hard in the set earlier. This is extremely dumb play and something Lussick needs get out of his game. And didn't Taupau do something similar to get a penalty against him?

Rodo, there in lies the rub.
The penalties you highlighted that we conceded may have been warranted, but when the opposition is doing the same things and NOT being penalised for them is why we have a whinge.

Holding on too long is a 50/50 - do you let them win the wrestle and push through the mark or try to maintain your dominance.

The amount of times the Panthers' markers were split at the play the ball ( and therefore not square) or a few metres behind the first marker but not back the 10 and allowed to get away with it was where the game was ultimately won, we just couldn't get across the advantage line.

 

[Nordburg]

You also need to break it down to whether the penalties were warranted or not or whether they were 50 % calls. And then the same for the opposition. But all this would be too hard to do.

Sure Manly were hard done by with a lot of penalties against them on Saturday but their discipline did not help. For example, Wright and Kelly went on far too long tackling DWZ. Lussick was offside at the play the ball trying to get back at the Penrith player after he had hit Lussick hard in the set earlier. This is extremely dumb play and something Lussick needs get out of his game. And didn't Taupau do something similar to get a penalty against him?

And the "Lussick needs to get that out of his game"line has been going on for far too long.

 

[Little Grubber Kick]

And the "Lussick needs to get that out of his game"line has been going on for far too long.

great points by all the posters here, bottom line the final stats aren't telling the whole story.
Because we know they even up penalty counts.
BUT even so, without all the other factors, a 23% advantage to the 'house', just think the 'house' gets a 10% advantage in a casino.
the where and when and momentum stoppers and starters can make this an 80% advantage to the 'house'.

it is all about percentages, and the average fan I suspect doesn't understand percentages too well, let alone how they relate to the gambling which is at the heart of it all.

 

[The Who]

This is not a new phenomenon. Manly have copped lopsided penalty counts for many seasons.
This is strange because the personnel of Manly sides change - yet the penalties continue. It leads to one of two conclusions:
1. Manly is coached to give away penalties by different coaches. I didn't realise the Manly coaching manual had such a section in it. Or
2. There is clear bias against Manly as a club, regardless of the make-up of the team or who is coaching them.

 

[Rodo]

And the "Lussick needs to get that out of his game"line has been going on for far too long.

Yes, could this have been why Lussick was suspended earlier in the year in NSW cup?

 

[The Wheel]

Send to Archer and Greenturd so they can feel good about themselves

 

[HappilyManly]

Baz was just on Fox and has clear understanding of Archer's rules.

He said that the 2 for backchat is fair and it's his job to make it clear to his players that it's not on

The stripping and laying in tackles etc, he will pass the Ref's rules onto the players

All the Footy Shows pointed out that when Farrah threw a ball at a defender, that Ref ruled against him for milking, whereas Turbo getting a ball into his back was ruled as a penalty

 

[Eagleheart]

Appreciate your info, I guess no surprise to any of us Manly fans. However what exacerbates those numbers is when in the tackle count we receive penalties or are penalised- that is the real killer. It is a major achievement when we receive a penalty on the third-fifth tackle, but suspect most of the ones we receive are on the first & second tackle. However our opponents usually seem to get the benefit of a penalty late in the tackle count - that sways the benefit significantly

Good points, @MissKate...!!

It would be very interesting to go further into this. So starting with the great work @Jatz Crackers has done. Then completing a similar spreadsheet for all teams but also including:

*Where in the tackle counts penalties are awarded?
*Where on the field are penalties awarded, i.e. attacking zone or other?
*How many points have come directly from a penalty either through a penalty kick or a try?
*What time are penalties awarded? (Very different getting a penalty at the beginning/middle of a half rather than towards the end with only minutes remaining.)
*You could even go as far as what the penalties are for and who was the official awarding them.

Obviously gathering all of this data would be a massive undertaking, but would be interesting no doubt.

I would not be surprised one bit, if there was a 'statistical officiating' method to influence results. And as we know officials definitely have an impact on the results of NRL games, no doubt about it, simply by being there. But, how much of an impact is the question and could their influences show patterns of favouritism etc?

 

[MissKate]

Totally agree @Eagleheart - I wonder how much the nrl & archer would pay to bury that data. Or would archer just roll out one of his usual bs responses and stick his head back in the sand

 

[HoldenV8]

Here is an interesting fact,

We all know the penalty count on Saturday was 14-4 against Manly. In the game against Castleford on the 1990 Kangaroo tour the penalty count at half time was 3-3. By the end of the game it had blown out to 17-7 (though Australia won the game 28-8). The referee Gerry Kershaw gave Castleford a 14-4 penalty count in the second half alone, not just the whole game.

 

[PONTIAN SEA EAGLE]

I can't tolerate lying all over the player.That seems to be the main reason we keep getting penalised for no other side does it more than us in games I have watched.

 

[yokahontas]

Good points, @MissKate...!!

It would be very interesting to go further into this. So starting with the great work @Jatz Crackers has done. Then completing a similar spreadsheet for all teams but also including:

*Where in the tackle counts penalties are awarded?
*Where on the field are penalties awarded, i.e. attacking zone or other?
*How many points have come directly from a penalty either through a penalty kick or a try?
*What time are penalties awarded? (Very different getting a penalty at the beginning/middle of a half rather than towards the end with only minutes remaining.)
*You could even go as far as what the penalties are for and who was the official awarding them.

Obviously gathering all of this data would be a massive undertaking, but would be interesting no doubt.

I would not be surprised one bit, if there was a 'statistical officiating' method to influence results. And as we know officials definitely have an impact on the results of NRL games, no doubt about it, simply by being there. But, how much of an impact is the question and could their influences show patterns of favouritism etc?

We need someone studying for a PhD in Statistics to take this on as their thesis.

Don't look at me, I failed first-year Stats...twice

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

We need someone studying for a PhD in Statistics to take this on as their thesis.

Don't look at me, I failed first-year Stats...twice

You can bet the Eagles stats guy has all this data, but also bet he won't give it to us!

 

[Frank]

Mmmmm...................maybe we shouldn't give away more penalties than our opposition. All these threads about how we are being penalised during games assumes that the refs are cheats and we are squeaky clean.

Time to move on guys. I'm tired of the siege mentality. All teams are hard done by from time to time.