Coronavirus sucks.. but the NRL lives!

[SeaEagleRock8]

Hope it’s all worth it folks.

You make it sound like everyone voted to have a pandemic!

 

[susan]

yes Susan,. It is far easier to create an isolation of peoples within a country than to isolate millions individually, one by one. Do you think medical people and governments havent thought of that. You can enforce isolation of the population by shutting down places where people congregate and contain movements to a large degree. Not perfect but more achiebale than one by one.. That's much easier than trying to isolate specific people, and their activities. But look about the World and ask the question. Why arent they acting in the manner you suggest? Its not me who is making the decision. Its people who know far more than me or you.

Who knows better lol

Trump Morrison and Johnson lol
That is pure gold

Anyone who thinks economic decisions don’t cost lives is delusional. Every welfare policy decision or otherwise means life or death for some people every year in every society.

 

[susan]

You make it sound like everyone voted to have a pandemic!

Not at all

My messsge has been very simple.

Economic slaughter costs just as many lives and many more in the third world in the coming years.
It needs to be factored in as well as handwringing good intentions and this “it’s just a health issue bull****”
Third world lives are just as important as middle class Caucasians aren’t they. For those playing the every life matters card they damn well should .

 

[Woodsie]

Who knows better lol

Trump Morrison and Johnson lol
That is pure gold

Anyone who thinks economic decisions don’t cost lives is an idiot.

If only they had access to your advice .....

 

[MuzztheEagle]

I'm curious @susan, how do you see the impending financial crisis (where millions die as a result) playing out? I have no doubt that we will have some very lean years ahead and accept that many individuals will lose close to all they have as a result of the current actions. But I just can't get to your level of fear over things. So please, enlighten me. How does society get to that level of catastrophe?

 

[SeaEagleRock8]

Right, the communist Chinese govt is too sentimental about old people. Would be funny if it wasn't so serious.
All those peddling the 'its only a flu' line have played a part in govts like ours dragging the chain instead of taking strong action at an early stage.

 

[Bearfax]

Who knows better lol

Trump Morrison and Johnson lol
That is pure gold

Anyone who thinks economic decisions don’t cost lives is an idiot.

Susan I am not going to discuss this further with you. Its plain you have a set opinion and that's your right. But this philosophical discussion is in reality irrelevant because we dont make the decisions, nor would I want it so.

The decisions are made by people being advised by the best medical knowledge available. Governments will act according to that advice. We can argue the rationale behind such decisions, but we are minions virtually pissing in the wind, by arguing these points. The decisions are being made despite what you or I think or believe.

So at this point I say enough said and wish you well in seeking to avoid the impact of this dreadful pandemic.

 

[susan]

SE8
I didn’t say it’s only the flu. My issue is the handling of it and the lack of thought as to economic and social cost which also costs a lot of lives.

Muzz

Don’t think it will happen. I think treatment will limit the damage these fools cause thank god and think we are closer than people think to treatment.

My issue is if that doesn’t happen then we have hell to pay and these decisions will haunt us.

In Australia it is easy to explain. Most owner occupied loans in residential housing are based on 80’to 90 percent LVRs.

If housing prices fall by 30 percent or more which is easy to imagine given the high unemployment then the banks are holding assets that are worth less than the loans. In effect the banking system becomes insolvent, credit rating agencies rerate them to junk bond status, their cost to borrow goes through the roof and they fold. People forget Westpac.was saved by Kerry Packer in the nineties.

In the US there are thousands of banks. In Australia we have a handful.
Given Australians are close to the highest per capita debt holders in the world, if not the highest , and have a national psyche based on property ownership I’ll let you work it out from there.

We also have the issue that almost all business loans are backed by private residence collateral which is not the case in many countries and almost all our residential and business loans are recourse loans as opposed to non recourse loans. If the sub prime issue had happened here we would have been decimated as we couldn’t just throw the keys on the table and walk out like they did, They would also take our car, boat , anything at all to make up a shortfall.

Throw in the small business destruction, massive social issues due to mass unemployment, the worldwide recession that is now a given and it’s a nice cocktail.

In regard to the death as a result the first thing that gets cut from bankrupt budgets is foreign aid to the third world. Foreign aid would be virtually non existent .Failed states become unpoliced war zones and new despots emerge. Starvation and civil war will outstrip this virus a hundred fold. But does anyone care? You tell me . It seems not.Throw in suicides and mental heath issues in developed countries and it’s a bloodbath.

 

[SeaEagleRock8]

Muzz

Don’t think it will happen. I think treatment will limit the damage these fools cause thank god and think we are closer than people think to treatment.

My issue is if that doesn’t happen then we have hell to pay and these decisions will haunt us.

In Australia it is easy to explain. Most owner occupied loans in residential housing are based on 80’to 90 percent LVRs.

If housing prices fall by 30 percent or more which is easy to imagine given the high unemployment then the banks are holding assets that are worth less than the loans. In effect the banking system becomes insolvent, credit rating agencies rerate them to junk bond status, their cost to borrow goes through the roof and they fold. People forget Westpac.was saved by Kerry Packer in the nineties.

In the US there are thousands of banks. In Australia we have a handful.
Given Australians are close to the highest per capita debt holders in the world, if not the highest , and have a national psyche based on property ownership I’ll let you work it out from there.Wecalso have the issue that almost all business loans are backed by private residence collateral which is not the case in many countries where they are non recourse loans. If the sub prime issue had happened here we would have been decimated as we can ju St throw the keys on the table and walk out. They also take our car, boat , anything.

Throw in the small business destruction, massive social issues due to mass unemployment and it’s a nice cocktail.

Oh dear it seems not a single western capitalist government bothered to get that financial advice, oops!
Obviously they were all too busy wringing their hands at the thought that dear old grandpa might pass away 6 months early. Because they are all such caring folks.
Sheesh!

On the contrary, as an educated guess I suggest in fact every one of those countries has made all their decisions based precisely on what they thought would best protect their respective economies.

 

[susan]

Oh dear it seems not a single western capitalist government bothered to get that financial advice, oops!
Obviously they were all too busy wringing their hands at the thought that dear old grandpa might pass away 6 months early. Because they are all such caring folks.
Sheesh!

On the contrary, as an educated guess I suggest in fact every one of those countries has made all their decisions based precisely on what they thought would best protect their respective economies.

Yes they did. Motive is irrelevant. But the decisions were late, not targeted and wrong. Agree entirely. Trump is a fool.
I’m just so surprised people don’t see the next part of the nightmare that will be caused by making current decisions in a vacuum while they obsess about the virus.This will become a people v economy trade off very quickly.

Do you seriously think people in this country , given the disgraceful behsviour of the past month , are not going to rise up as they lose their jobs house and futures if there is no treatment.
I’ll give it a month in the absence of treatment. It’s so damned obvious and watch the government U Turn.
96000 thousand people tried to register on Centrelink this morning Capacity 55000

 

[Bring back the.... Biff?]

Anyone heard anything about Queensland closing borders? Nrl is going to end soon ;(

 

[susan]

Anyone heard anything about Queensland closing borders? Nrl is going to end soon ;(

Just closed

 

[SeaEagleRock8]

Do you seriously think people in this country , given the disgraceful behsviour of the past month , are not going to rise up as they lose their jobs house and futures if there is no treatment.
I’ll give it a month in the absence of treatment. It’s so damned obvious

I'm sure the governments considered that and took what they thought to be the least damaging course. And I agree with you they've stuffed it up bigtime, in many cases.
Also I agree with you that the unemployment is going to pose a massive challenge to our current social order.
But a pandemic being allowed to sweep through a working-age population who are expected to keep working, keep paying taxes, while feeling sick, while seeing relatives dying due to the health system having crashed, while political leaders say good work, and don't forget to vote for me again next time! Um, I think that scenario has pretty much universally been discounted with scarcely a second thought.
As also probably has been your suggestion about sequestering the aged and infirm so others can have the flu in peace. I just don't see that as a viable pragmatic option other than in science fiction.

But don't panic, there is still the police and the army to keep the hordes at bay, for a while. If it goes too long of course, we're left with escalating competing tensions between a revolutionary movement to overturn bourgeois property relations on one hand versus a serious push for fascist dictatorships on the other.
But you're kidding yourself if you think the (muddling) efforts of governments worldwide haven't all been made precisely with a view to minimising the risk of such a scenario.

 

[MuzztheEagle]

Muzz

Don’t think it will happen. I think treatment will limit the damage these fools cause thank god and think we are closer than people think to treatment.

My issue is if that doesn’t happen then we have hell to pay and these decisions will haunt us.

In Australia it is easy to explain. Most owner occupied loans in residential housing are based on 80’to 90 percent LVRs.

If housing prices fall by 30 percent or more which is easy to imagine given the high unemployment then the banks are holding assets that are worth less than the loans. In effect the banking system becomes insolvent, credit rating agencies rerate them to junk bond status, their cost to borrow goes through the roof and they fold. People forget Westpac.was saved by Kerry Packer in the nineties.

In the US there are thousands of banks. In Australia we have a handful.
Given Australians are close to the highest per capita debt holders in the world, if not the highest , and have a national psyche based on property ownership I’ll let you work it out from there.

We also have the issue that almost all business loans are backed by private residence collateral which is not the case in many countries and almost all our residential and business loans are recourse loans as opposed to non recourse loans. If the sub prime issue had happened here we would have been decimated as we couldn’t just throw the keys on the table and walk out like they did, They would also take our car, boat , anything at all to make up a shortfall.

Throw in the small business destruction, massive social issues due to mass unemployment, the worldwide recession that is now a given and it’s a nice cocktail.

Thanks, there's quite bit to unpack there so I will try not to open up too many rabbit holes

Let's maybe talk about risk first: You don't think such a crash would actually happen (I think?) but what do you think the odds would be? 20%, 50%? What about the risk of Coronavirus? What would be the corresponding level of deaths that would meet such a market crash? And then what odds would you give to that happening (under your own containment system)? How would you (and experts) estimate that sort of likelihood?
Lastly, if the containment was to fail and we saw deaths to the equivalent of the financial crisis, what do you think would be the impact to financial and housing markets? Could we end up in the same situation regardless of the measures put in place? It's all about risk for me, but I don't have the expertise to make those assessments.

 

[SeaEagleRock8]

but what do you think the odds would be? 20%, 50%? What about the risk of Coronavirus? What would be the corresponding level of deaths that would meet such a market crash?

Not sure if those are rhetorical questions but susan has certainly alluded previously to the numbers not stacking up, so fair play.
Point though is that the numbers while significant are not the determinative force at play. What matters are the circumstances and the effect on the psyche of the populace. So far about 13000 have died. Compare with ‘only’ 2977 that died in 9/11 attack yet the effects of that persist nearly 2 decades on.

 

[Bring back the.... Biff?]

Just closed

What does this mean for the nrl?

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

Just closed

Midnight Wednesday, allows everyone that’s interstate to get home.

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

Life as we know it is , and will, change during and especially after this.

Goodness knows what the future holds.

Governments are making decisions that could be wildly wrong or bang on , only time will tell but what I do know is they are trying their best wether you voted for them ( National Cabinet made up all Premiers , Chief Ministers , and Federal Cabinet) or not.

I see so much crap being thrown on Twitter ( and yes people have different opinions) by some journalists and as far as I’m concerned for at least the short term they should shut the **** up.

I wish everyone on here all the best , those that have lost jobs , those that have small businesses, those with pre existing medical conditions and those that are above 60 and as such high risk.

Im lucky , I can at this stage afford to stay home and hopefully ride it out, I really hope you can too!!!

 

[Bring back the.... Biff?]

Life as we know it is , and will, change during and especially after this.

Goodness knows what the future holds.

Governments are making decisions that could be wildly wrong or bang on , only time will tell but what I do know is they are trying their best wether you voted for them ( National Cabinet made up all Premiers , Chief Ministers , and Federal Cabinet) or not.

I see so much crap being thrown on Twitter ( and yes people have different opinions) by some journalists and as far as I’m concerned for at least the short term they should shut the **** up.

I wish everyone on here all the best , those that have lost jobs , those that have small businesses, those with pre existing medical conditions and those that are above 60 and as such high risk.

Im lucky , I can at this stage afford to stay home and hopefully ride it out, I really hope you can too!!!

Scary times mate... stay safe everyone and healthy

 

[The '47ers]

What does this mean for the nrl?

The end