I really hope so. I’m not against his signing; I think decent 5th tackle options are imperative to success. However, I don’t see him as this great upgrade that’s suddenly going to transform our fortunes. I’m hoping he is, but I’m not counting my chickens before they hatch.
I don't think he's necessarily an upgrade. With a caveat.
From Raiders fans, I've heard two main thoughts.
The first one is that Fogarty has never really stood out all that much before this year, but he had been consistent. Remember, Fogarty has made 4/6 finals series since becoming a first grader. That's a better record than us, at any point in the past decade. The second thing I've heard from them, is that this year, he has been impeccable in everything besides closing a game out.
Meanwhile, DCE has had his hands over Manly and our game plans for the past 15 seasons. For better at times, but also for worse. This year, it was almost certainly for the worse, besides a few games.
I see us getting someone who is more consistent, whilst being far less explosive.
At Fogarty's worst, he'll bring a great kicking game, service his outside backs and forwards well enough, whilst defending poorly when he is targeted (so no change to DCE), and not being able to close out a tied game.
At his best, we get someone with a near-perfect kicking game, excellent game management, a good defender on most days, whilst not being able to close out a tied game.
That difference in form is not extensive.
Compare it to DCE.
At DCE's worst, we get someone who kicks it dead on the 2nd tackle, has absolutely zero idea about game management, throws flat balls at Garrick's head, runs out of the line hence similarly selling out Garrick or whoever the centre is, but who can still kick a perfect field goal or 40/20.
Meanwhile, at his best, he is one of the greatest halfbacks of all time. Not even a question.
Whilst DCE's highs are extremely high, he is massively inconsistent. DCE's bizzare swings in form, both week-to-week and year-to-year are a major reason for our record over the past decade. As many have said, he's never been "the guy", until the game is on the line. He's needed Foran in the seasons where we have struggled.
Meanwhile, we also have Tom Trbojevic on $1.3 million. He's managed to be more inconsistent than DCE, and often has taken the focus off him. If he plays like he did for most of this year, he will be our weakest link next year. Jake is also massively overpaid, although I don't think anyone was ever expecting him to drag us out of our struggles. I don't blame him for a stupid contract.
I hope the less erratic nature of Fogarty allows Brooks to focus on his strengths. Brooks was very good, until DCE fell into poor form and forgot about game management. When Brooks is thinking about game management, something has gone wrong. Fogarty may correct this, and allow Brooks to focus on his strengths.
Basically, we're trading in x-factor for consistency. There is no point in having someone who will win you a grand final, if you can't even make the finals at all.
In the future, if we do make a GF, Fogarty won't be the most important player for us, like he is for the Raiders. Tom Trbojevic will be. That's a different can of worms.
