Pre-Game Manly V Souths [Round 18, 2025]

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4 Pines Park

06 Jul 2025 04:05 PM


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I see we are pretty red hot favourites for this one.

I guess with Trell & Cody out there’s not heaps left at the Bunnies.

Be nice to win two in a row before we get dusted by the top teams
 
Just furthermore on this, and for anyone legitimately concerned about winning the spoon, it is not a concern.

We are on 18 points with 10 rounds and 9 matches to go. The Titans are in last place with 12 points also with 9 games to play (plus 1 bye).

So lets say worst case scenario and we lose all 9 games, which would, despite a tougher run home, be a dramatic fall from grace considering we have won 47% of our games thus far. That would still mean the Titans would have to win 3 (and make up just over 180 PD) or more likely 4 games out of their remaining 9. This is essentially doubling their current win rate.

Now, the above is unlikely as it is, but say we don’t win another game and the Titans have a revival.

We are also 4 points clear of the Knights, Tigers, Eels and Rabbitohs., so you would need all of those teams most likely to make up 6 points on us (4 may be enough with PD). Now Knights and Rabbitohs have two byes each so a little easier but the fact remains still we are talking 4 clubs that in the last 5 rounds have won 3 of 18 matches. So a 16% win ratio that would need to increase evenly to over 30%

And this is not to mention those teams will play each other and cannibalize each others point scoring potential.

Essentially, the form of the entire comp would have to almost completely flip for us to win the spoon. It isn’t happening.
Hmm I like where your going with this Disco ,but you do know what they say about data ,that if you torture it long enough and hard enough you can get it to say pretty much anything you want .
Tread your own path and Gamble responsibly !!!
 
Sorry but I looked this up the other day, panthers won 8 and got the spoon in 2007 same as Knights in 2015 so we're not out of the woods yet.
Yeah tbf I went back 7 or 8 years and figured close enough 😂

We are out of the woods, those 5 teams arent all catching us.
 

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2025 Ladder

Team P W D L PD Pts
1 Raiders 16 13 0 3 104 28
2 Bulldogs 14 11 0 3 96 28
3 Storm 14 10 0 4 196 26
4 Warriors 15 10 0 5 11 24
5 Broncos 15 8 0 7 64 20
6 Roosters 14 7 0 7 16 20
7 Panthers 15 7 1 7 3 19
8 Dolphins 16 8 0 8 162 18
9 Sea Eagles 15 7 0 8 40 18
10 Sharks 16 8 0 8 -4 18
11 Dragons 14 6 0 8 -45 18
12 Cowboys 15 6 1 8 -134 17
13 Knights 16 6 0 10 -67 14
14 Tigers 15 5 0 10 -84 14
15 Eels 15 5 0 10 -103 14
16 Rabbitohs 16 6 0 10 -111 14
17 Titans 15 4 0 11 -144 12
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