Election 2010, who do you think will win and why??

[The Gronk]

A lot of words there Rusty.  Basically you are saying that you assume a swing to the Libs, and each of the most marginal seats will fall.

It never happens that way, marginal seats are held, non-marginal seats fall. 

I don't have time to go through your lengthy posts but there is no way all the seats changing hands will go in one direction.  The ALP will pick up quite a few. 

I still think the ALP will win, but they aren't doing themselves any favours at the moment. 

The female vote will "bight Labour" eh? I didn't realise there were many women in the Great Australian Bight who could vote for the UK Labour Party. 

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

I'd agree Gronk, some will fall, some will be retained it's never that simple unless there's a uniform swing (and there never is)

The simple thing to remember is Labor (correct spelling by the way) won so many seats in the 2007 election that it's doubtful they'll lose enough this time to change government.

Winning Government back for the L-NP was always going to be a 2 term approach anyway, the fact that we are even saying they have a chance means that Gillard and co are doing a lot worse that we all think.

As I said right at the very start, Labor will win with a greatly reduced margin.....I think they have about 26 seats or something now, I'd estimate they'll probably lose 15 and maybe gain 2 or 3, for say a net loss of 12-13.

The 2013 (or 14) election is when Abbot and Co (if he is still there) will be aiming at, this election is just to reduce the number of seats they have to win in 3-4 years by as many as they can.

 

[Rusty]

I'd agree Gronk, some will fall, some will be retained it's never that simple unless there's a uniform swing (and there never is)

The simple thing to remember is Labor (correct spelling by the way) won so many seats in the 2007 election that it's doubtful they'll lose enough this time to change government.

Winning Government back for the L-NP was always going to be a 2 term approach anyway, the fact that we are even saying they have a chance means that Gillard and co are doing a lot worse that we all think.

As I said right at the very start, Labor will win with a greatly reduced margin.....I think they have about 26 seats or something now, I'd estimate they'll probably lose 15 and maybe gain 2 or 3, for say a net loss of 12-13.

The 2013 (or 14) election is when Abbot and Co (if he is still there) will be aiming at, this election is just to reduce the number of seats they have to win in 3-4 years by as many as they can.

This is not true, Labor did not win so many seats at the last election. They only have to lose 11 to lose government which is not a huge hurdle. The major issue which I have stated a number of times is the redistribution, which have not been kind to Labor. Although on paper they have delivered the ALP 5 extra seats in fact they have left them in a terrible position. Many of the seats affected have retiring Labor members or are defended by very strong LIB members who should retain their seats. Labor holds exactly 20 more seats then the coalition, 10 change and we have a hung parliament with the independents in balance of power, and 11 LIBs have the most seats, 13 I think delivers them power in their own right.

And a 2% swing is not a huge ask against a sitting government. Especially if this swing happens in just two states (NSW and QLD) then the coalition will go very very close to winning. These seats falling do not require a uniform swing to happen to do so, they may all fall of local issues, my feeling is that we will see a swing and that the change may be up to 25 -26 seats, but as always I am ready to admit that I am hardly an oracle and people much smarter and much higher paid then me will be getting this wrong.

My point was that each of the seats listed was at risk for individual, unique reasons. I can tell you something for free, I have seen some internal polling from the labor party which puts them on track to lose 10 seats in QLD alone.

The problem for Labor is that 2007 may well represent a high water mark in that they captured most of the coalitions marginals, leaving few at risk. And as to seats changing hands in the other direction, there may I grant you be five at risk.

Bowman (QLD) LIB 0.01%
McEwen (VIC) LIB 0.02%
Hughes (NSW) LIB 0.5%
La Trobe (VIC) LIB 0.5%
Paterson (NSW) LIB 0.6%

The two in VIC possible may fall, I highly doubt Bowman will as the ALP vote in QLD was very very high at the last election compared to nationally and should fall accordingly, and Hughes and Paterson while both at risk have good local members sitting and will be a hard ask for Labor, hard but possible. Above this you have only 1 seat below a 1% swing, which is Sturt (SA), Christopher Pynes seat, his increased public profile and his seniority in the LIB party should see him home in a seat the LIBs are desperate to retain and are spending money like mad to do so.

After that only 5 more seats sit in the 1 - 2% category, with two in WA which polls show is going to swing quite heavily against the government, two national seats, Nationals have historically been very hard to unseat when they are not in government and one seat that may be at risk, Ryan (QLD). Due to a conservative independent running Labor may sneak home here if they are lucky.

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

I live in the Ryan  seat Rusty, Michael Johnstion was well respected but had a falling out....the new Liberal candidate is Jane Prentice, who is also a sitting Councillor for the Brisbane City Council.

The problem will be the split vote, so I agree Ryan could topple.

BUT

Labor are really really on the nose in QLD, and QLD delivered the most seats to Dudd in 2007, I think a lot of these will go back.

I am sorry I am not quite as offay with the numbers as you are...if it's only 11 seats they need then Tony and Co are up to their nuts in this one as I agree, they could lose 10 alone in QLD

 

[OneEyedEagle]

[quote author=byso link=topic=184174.msg280381#msg280381 date=1280661108]

I dont know many swinging voters.  Out here in country NSW its a bit like the Holden or a Ford debate, you are what you are and thats it.


[/quote]

Bob, So are you a FORD or Holden Man?

 

[OneEyedEagle]

Personally I think labor will get across the line with the Greens preferences going to the ALP.

It’s a shame that there isn't a real choice of a 3rd party to choose from like the democrats under the Don Chip era. He was a fairly good parliamentarian that actually worked for the people and the good of the country, he kept the bastards honest.

Sadly, (I may be wrong) however like as in NSW where the Fred Nile Party held the balance of power the greens will do the same in the senate.

Apart form their preferences going to labor, I could never vote for the greens as they have vowed to turn one third of Australia's territorial waters into marine park where fishing would be banned. Being someone that enjoys to have a fish, I could never support a party that would introduce this sort of legislation.

 

[ManlyBacker]

It’s a shame that there isn't a real choice of a 3rd party to choose from like the democrats under the Don Chip era. He was a fairly good parliamentarian that actually worked for the people and the good of the country, he kept the bastards honest.

That is exactly the reason why I hate hung parliaments. Thanks to Kernot of the Dems we inherited a GST system that has kept lawyers rich and the cash register software complicated because it wasn't applied across everything.

 

[OneEyedEagle]

MB, there is a fair bit of misconception about the GST. I am not stating that its either a good or bad tax but simply just facts!

The GST replaced the hidden federal wholesale sales tax system which was based around 21% on all goods much higher on others and was supposed to phase out a number of various State and Territory government taxes, duties and levies such as banking taxes and stamp duty.

The GST is a much fair system of collecting taxes where as everyone pays for it even corporate companies and their long lunches at the top end restaurants. The only down side of the GST is that it adds a tax to services such as amenities as gas, electricity and water etc.

GST is by far a fairer way to collect revenue through taxation, everyone including tourists that visit the country contribute to the taxation system. Personally I wish they would reduce the person income tax even further

 

[Canteen Worker]

[quote author=OneEyedEagle link=topic=184174.msg280487#msg280487 date=1280730836]
It’s a shame that there isn't a real choice of a 3rd party to choose from like the democrats under the Don Chip era. He was a fairly good parliamentarian that actually worked for the people and the good of the country, he kept the bastards honest.

That is exactly the reason why I hate hung parliaments. Thanks to Kernot of the Dems we inherited a GST system that has kept lawyers rich and the cash register software complicated because it wasn't applied across everything.
[/quote]It was Meg Lees who led the Democrats to support the GST, not Cheryl Kernot. She had other issues but not that one. Soon after the Democrats slid into oblivion and Latham gifted the Libs control of the Senate - leading to Work Choices and a few other problems. Any system of tax is going to advantage and disadvantage people so I am not going to rabbit on about that except to say that the idea that the GST would get rid of the 'black economy' was the biggest joke ever. Have you ever met a tradesman who didn't offer a non-gst alternative for cash in hand???

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

Compared to tonights game this is "light relief"

 

[bob dylan]

[quote author=bob dylan link=topic=184174.msg280391#msg280391 date=1280664767]
[quote author=byso link=topic=184174.msg280381#msg280381 date=1280661108]

I dont know many swinging voters.  Out here in country NSW its a bit like the Holden or a Ford debate, you are what you are and thats it.


[/quote]

Bob, So are you a FORD or Holden Man?
[/quote]

For what its worth, Holden.

But cars ain't my thing.

 

[ManlyBacker]

I am all in favour of a GST. There may still be black money as CW points out but somewhere along the line where-ever they spend their ill-gotten gains it will be taxed. That is a huge change from what we had. It was just crazy in my opinion to drop the tax from shoes, school clothes, non-processed foods, what was deemed basic essentials as it made it all too difficult and in the courts to decide what was/is in or out. That is what you get when minority parties have a giant say in how the economy should be run.

 

[Rusty]

I am all in favour of a GST. There may still be black money as CW points out but somewhere along the line where-ever they spend their ill-gotten gains it will be taxed. That is a huge change from what we had. It was just crazy in my opinion to drop the tax from shoes, school clothes, non-processed foods, what was deemed basic essentials as it made it all too difficult and in the courts to decide what was/is in or out. That is what you get when minority parties have a giant say in how the economy should be run.

To be honest when I speak to people, I still hear a lot of people tell me Howard promised we would never get a GST. But when I ask them if the GST is a bad thing they can't tell me that it is.

I think the issue has become a defining point in peoples minds about the honesty of the man and not the validity of the taxation system.

For the record, simpler taxation is an improvement, the old sales tax systems were a mess and the GST is a big improvement. I would have applied it to everything frankly, including school books and the like and used the extra money to give more to the poor to buy these things.

 

[Rusty]

I live in the Ryan  seat Rusty, Michael Johnstion was well respected but had a falling out....the new Liberal candidate is Jane Prentice, who is also a sitting Councillor for the Brisbane City Council.

The problem will be the split vote, so I agree Ryan could topple.

BUT

Labor are really really on the nose in QLD, and QLD delivered the most seats to Dudd in 2007, I think a lot of these will go back.

I am sorry I am not quite as offay with the numbers as you are...if it's only 11 seats they need then Tony and Co are up to their nuts in this one as I agree, they could lose 10 alone in QLD

Labor internals have QLD in big trouble, hence their huge TV spending up there over the last week and their decision to hold their launch in Brisbane. Still I am not as confident as Abbott himself who has been in Leichart the seat around Cairns, which I put on the edge of the winnable seats margin. Still I haven't seen any coalition polling so perhaps it is showing certain target seats as more or less winnable then I have them.

People say that state issues do not correlate to a federal vote, I think this is mostly true. However some people are unable to tell the difference between the two (Remember no IQ test on voting) and some will simply take out their anger at the next vote possible. In NSW this might only result in a 0.1% swing, I don't know, but even it is only such a small addition to the vote it will still be critical in seats, especially Robinson.

I still feel QLD, NSW and WA will be the key states at this election, and possibly at the next few. That is unless this election shows some changes in the other states creating more marginal seats.

While we are talking state by state, I don't know if people have seen the mining industry adds, certainly if you are in WA you would have since they are spending 8 times as much on WA then NSW.

 

[bob dylan]

A question Rusty, if I might

What to you think will happen in the seat of Riverina? which has been a National stonghold forever.

Made interesting this time around because the incument Kay Hull is not running and now the Liberals have a very popular candidate. All that on top on the 3 or 4% swing to the ALP last time.

DO you have an opinion.

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

Rusty

The advertisments for Labor (mostly funded by the Unions) are going gang busters here in QLD, I have to agree I think QLD/WA and NSW will decide who gets in.

Labor are VERY unpopular here at present (State wise) and whilst the smart people do know the difference gee a lot don't.

And if that's the case they woud be in real trouble in NSW as they are hated down there (State wise).

I note the betting agencies have brought the odds in a bit, as it stands now it woulkd have been juicy getting those early odds on the LNP.

 

[Rusty]

A question Rusty, if I might

What to you think will happen in the seat of Riverina? which has been a National stonghold forever.

Made interesting this time around because the incument Kay Hull is not running and now the Liberals have a very popular candidate. All that on top on the 3 or 4% swing to the ALP last time.

DO you have an opinion.

I will look into it Bob. Give me a day or so.

 

[Rusty]

Rusty

The advertisments for Labor (mostly funded by the Unions) are going gang busters here in QLD, I have to agree I think QLD/WA and NSW will decide who gets in.

Labor are VERY unpopular here at present (State wise) and whilst the smart people do know the difference gee a lot don't.

And if that's the case they woud be in real trouble in NSW as they are hated down there (State wise).

I note the betting agencies have brought the odds in a bit, as it stands now it woulkd have been juicy getting those early odds on the LNP.

They need to spend the money up there Mark to stand any chance.

Also remember the odds represent the weight of money not the current likelyhood of either side winning. A lot of money was placed on labor when these markets opened when Rudd was still the leader and popular, and then again when Gillard first took over. The odds have paired back but it will take a lot for the coalition to move ahead on the betting markets.

 

[Rusty]

A question Rusty, if I might

What to you think will happen in the seat of Riverina? which has been a National stonghold forever.

Made interesting this time around because the incument Kay Hull is not running and now the Liberals have a very popular candidate. All that on top on the 3 or 4% swing to the ALP last time.

DO you have an opinion.

What an odd decision by the coalition partners to run two candidates in what should be Nationals heartland. Still the two party preferred ran at 66% - 33% last election and I would assume that the Libs will be preferencing the Nats and v-v.

I would guess at a NAT retain, but not being on the ground and having heard very little information out of the area I couldn't tell you 100% for sure. What I do know is that Nats leadership have been ever present in the region, but that is nothing to be surprised at, this should after all be heartland.

Again this is a seat effected by redistribution, with Lib voting areas of adjacent seats being included, unless the Lib candidate is very very very popular I would think that all she will manage is to take votes from the NATs which will then be preferenced back.

 

[bob dylan]

Thanks Rusty, it was just and educated opinion I was after.

I should add the new National candidate was the editor of the major newspaper in the area, The Wagga Daily Advertiser,  for many years. Which has him well known in the community but also unpopular with many because of the newspapers direction under his leadership.

I wait with interest to see what happens, but you could of "knocked me down with a feather" when the Libs decided to run a candidate. Do you know why they would do this?