Trump

[lsz]

I have a question.

I have hunted high and low, left and right and can not find any record of this poll

Do you think he

1. Gets given information by his staff that is misleading
2. Is so used to telling mis truths that he actually believes this
3. Knows exactly what he is doing

 

[h27272727]

You can name call & label it ‘woke nonsense’ all you like. Fact is they lost to Trump whose political career was dead in the water after January 6th. People would rather vote for a felon over someone who is too woke to answer what a woman is or say trans people competing in women’s sport is unfair🤣.

Trumps anti-woke ad campaign won him the election & you need to find a way to cope with that, I understand that upsets you but facts don’t care about your feelings. Run another far left democrat like AOC & they’ll get trampled again in 3 years time.

(Source New York Times)

So [the Trump campaign] poured still more money into the ads, running them during football games, which prompted Charlamagne Tha God, the host of the Breakfast Club, a popular show among Black listeners, to express exasperation — and his on-air complaints gave the Trump team fodder for yet another commercial. The Charlamagne ad ranked as one of the Trump team’s most effective 30-second spots, according to an analysis by Future Forward, Ms. Harris’s leading super PAC. It shifted the race 2.7 percentage points in Mr. Trump’s favor after viewers watched it.

The anti-trans ads cut to the core of the Trump argument: that Ms. Harris was “dangerously liberal” — the exact vulnerability her team was most worried about. The ads were effective with Black and Latino men, according to the Trump team, but also with moderate suburban white women who might be concerned about transgender athletes in girls’ sports.

Those were the same suburban women Ms. Harris was trying to mobilize with ads about abortion.

Democrats struggled to respond. At one point, former President Bill Clinton told an associate, “We have to answer it and say we won’t do it.” He even raised the issue in a conversation with the campaign and was told the Trump ads were not necessarily having an impact, according to two people familiar with his conversations. He never broached the topic publicly.

Hi my previous post to Brookie sort of answers to this,

I don’t disagree that the ads were effective. I think that’s the problem with them. They grab some clips, propagandise them, stoke a culture war and hope people don’t stop to think “what will the Republican Party actually do to improve the situation”.

As for the % points changing due to the ad, how does that work? Is it based on a poll of sorts? If so, I think it’s fair to say polls are generally unreliable as a quantitative data source. Eg. They are typically great at capturing some overall trends, but to extrapolate that to the entire population / voting base the requirement is that there be no response bias (which is borderline impossible without a national mandatory poll).

As for the situation - I think it is in bad faith (or perhaps revisionist) to suggest the election was predominantly based on “woke” ideas. Four years on from Covid prices had stayed up (global phenomena) and naturally people start to think any change is a good change. I understand why people think that way. Immigration also dominated headlines and political messaging. But really it boiled down to Trump fear mongering about the economy, immigrants, woke and the democrats doing the same about Trump. Republicans mentioned little policy, Democrats only partially touched on theirs and that was that. It was fairly representative of the trends in US politics / media in general over the years. More interest in headlines and drama than political policy

 

[Ohgeez]

I have a question.

I have hunted high and low, left and right and can not find any record of this poll

Do you think he

1. Gets given information by his staff that is misleading
2. Is so used to telling mis truths that he actually believes this
3. Knows exactly what he is doing

What poll are you referring too?

 

[Brookie1973]

Oh my bad I edited my comment (the “such as…” one) after you got to it

But sure,

Off the bat, yes I do think that confirmation bias is a valid concern (particularly when searching for data, there’s always a risk of being selective).

That said, I think the recent post I made on trans versus male mass shootings shows I can change my stance (particularly when the data is there to support it). For example, I came into that post thinking that ‘trans people being 5 times less likely to be violent than males’ was still far too low. Looking at just two datasets I actually got 8.6 times myself, so in retrospect the value of 5 actually appeared fairly reasonable / a safe estimate.

Anyways to answer your question; this is the first US election cycle I’ve had interest in, so I watched a fair bit of Kamala speeches. While I know for a fact that she spoke of trans people, there were only so many times the topic was actually discussed. If you look through the footage on YouTube you’ll also find that more often than not the topic was raised by an audience member in a town hall, or an interviewer/reporter. It really was a small focus that got a lot of media attention.

Why did it get so much attention? Why is it still a commonly held viewpoint amongst Republican fans today?

I think the following may be a factor. From CNN (also available elsewhere):

Over the first half of October, former President Donald Trump and his allies poured more than $21 million into television ads attacking Vice President Kamala Harris over her past support of certain rights for transgender people – a message they have spread during nationally televised NFL games, college football broadcasts and in battleground states.​

​

It’s a staggering sum to spend on a topic that most voters say isn’t a top priority for them this election. But Trump’s campaign is betting any voters still choosing between the two candidates can be swayed to take sides in a cultural fight that has torn apart state houses and school boards in recent years – one that has put tremendous focus on an incredibly small, marginalized group that already faces discrimination-based violence. Republicans in key Senate races have mirrored that messaging as part of a playbook painting Democrats as out of touch with most voters.​

This really tied in with my earlier idea (previous post) that the Democrats were effectively reduced to being a “woke, radical party” despite having a sizeable policy handbook with fairly standard ideas in it.

On Kamala, I wasn’t particularly inspired by her. Thought she would’ve been an OK candidate in the past but she probably wasn’t confrontational enough for what she was contending with and did not convince voters that she would meaningfully change things.

I’m not really following the train of your argument. Are you saying the Democrats do not favour trans rights, that Kamala was flawed in not pushing back on accusations they were, or in not coming out and fully committing to trans rights and other “woke nonsense”?

I suggest the core issue is that Trump is a politician of conviction, and people trust that what he says he believes. The problem for the democrats is that their true conviction politicians, such as AOC and the NY Mayor candidate, espouse views which are too radical for middle America, and these are the ones many Americans associate with the Democrat party. Other supposedly more moderate democrat candidates come across as either being disingenuous or lacking conviction (“I’ll say this, but I don’t really believe it”). This is the fault of the democrats, not Trump. He has just been politically savvy enough to play to the theme. That is just good politics.

The democrats of today are a far cry from what they were say 20 years ago. They are less and less a sensible alternative government, and more a party of protest and resistance. That is on them.

 

[lsz]

What poll are you referring too?

Exactly. I could not find one that he quoted at his UN speech

 

[manly al]

Most likely Trumpie would have been re elected in 2020 all things normal if not for the either part perception , part reality that he mishandled or mismanaged the Covid response in the U S when the endemic was causing no end of problems or at its peak
Probably turns out that some of the negative perception was a bit overblown or out of proportion but such is the fluctuating nature of politics anywhere
Immigration issue and whatever negative connotations of the so called Woke agenda , certainly worked in Trump "s favor at the 24 election
Kamala Harris was in an awkward predicament once she replaced Biden and being wedged on some contentious issues advocated by him when she felt probably obliged but no doubt a bit reluctant to endorse
Much bigger issues not getting much publicity now but will inevitably come into play like BRICS having an impact on particularly U S influence in the globe soon and not sure if Trumpie has the composure or outlook to accommodate the U S "s or some other western countries best response or interests there
Seems totally erratic on many of his international positions, maybe not so in domestic politics but could be more on the unpredictable and uncertain side for the remaining 3 and a half years of his term