[Resurrected] Season 2018 your predictions

[Woodsie]

My crystal ball says 6th (the other one's not saying).

Your wooden one?

I'll ring the ex and see if mine are talking ....

 

[Growler FNQ]

very confident that we will be better than last year, 2017 saw a couple of purple patches for us and if we can keep a squad together without any major injuries these can be replicated more often this year, cowgirls the team to beat and i think we can do that.

 

[Chip and Chase]

I see The Mole has us pegged for 4th. But he also thinks the Storm can go back to back and that Sam Kasiano is the buy of the year

 

[midsteyne]

The team Wil be better than last season.I saw something special.

 

[Deleted member 26876]

Reckon storm will fall out of top 4 although then again questionable as they have an easy draw. Think Roosters will be decent although their draw will also give them help in winning the minor premiership

I'd go with the top 4 consisting of Roosters, Cowboys, Sea Eagles, Sharks (who will move Moylan to fullback early season)

Then, Storm, Broncos, Dragons and either Eels/Panthers/Bulldogs rounding out the top 8

 

[Deleted member 26876]

The team Wil be better than last season.I saw something special.

Same, looked very clinical and persistent

 

[1969]

It's too early to say, lots of questions to be asked yet:

Will Walker fully recover from his injury?
TPA penalty?
Is Carney playing?
Jorge already grabbing his shoulder?
Who is the goalkicker?
Will the young guns step up?

I'll take a stab at 5-8th, but any major injuries, we might battle. I'm pleased with how we are putting the puzzle together though. Lot's of positives there.

 

[Wombat64]

9th to 12th.

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

It's too early to say, lots of questions to be asked yet:

Will Walker fully recover from his injury?
TPA penalty?
Is Carney playing?
Jorge already grabbing his shoulder?
Who is the goalkicker?
Will the young guns step up?

I'll take a stab at 5-8th, but any major injuries, we might battle. I'm pleased with how we are putting the puzzle together though. Lot's of positives there.

I’m sure we will recover from the TPA penalty , if it had been really bad we would be playing for zero points or a points reduction already announced.

Toddy is just trying to work out a low ball penalty that Penn won’t bother fighting that saves face.

But your point 2 is very important.

I watched the Raiders game ( round 13) from last year and Dylan is very very important , with Tom our real X Factor’s our wide.

If he’s lost his blistering speed , or ability to weave through traffic then we will be the poorer for it.

AND to be honest the news today that we are even in negotiations with young Suli suggests to me that this might be the case.

 

[brad]

Top 4 with Carney, 6th or 7th without.

Thats a fair comment mate .

 

[EaglesDontTweet]

We have a similar side to last year without established 5/8th.

So all things being equal (and we know they never are) let's look at last Season:

I have highlighted what I think are the good wins(blue) and bad losses(Red).

3 Golden Point games - We won all of them.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I recall us having a very stable line-up through the first half of the season.

We weren't impacted negatively by State of Origin, maybe slight benefit?

Our momentum dropped off in the last quarter, winning only 4 of our last 9 games*, one against the Warriors by golden point.

Continuing the assumptions, we benefit from keeping the same squad together (minus Green) which counteracts to a degree the improvements of the other teams.

We don't benefit from the disruptions to the spines of the clubs because of the moves of Cronk, Pearce, Moylan, because we also have a disrupted spine without a Cronk, Pearce, etc., coming in.

Positives: Jake another year more confident and hungry, Taupau being Taupau, the passion of (another) Thompson, AFB, Siro healthy, Lussick fulfilling potential?

Negatives: We might be lacking that "mongrel" player or two out there saying...we have them down by 10 let's make it 30. But my TV might not be showing that.

So, if, good forwards improving and staying on the field, minimal injuries with backs, 5/8th (being good defensively) and Cherry combining well (and having to defend less), Walks back to his old self running freely, defensive coach given priority over off season, Trent learning from last year (peaking team later in season), a goal kicker kicking above competition average, referees referee every play on it's merits, a few great players in opposition sides towards the end of their careers, some teams will play badly, some teams we will make play badly, I say 8th with potential upside.


*or 9 of our last 14 if you're a glass half full kind of person


Info in spreadsheet above from the great website RUGBY LEAGUE project:
Link: https://www.rugbyleagueproject.org/seasons/nrl-2017/manly-warringah-sea-eagles/summary.html

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

We have a similar side to last year without established 5/8th.

So all things being equal (and we know they never are) let's look at last Season:

View attachment 7638

I have highlighted what I think are the good wins(blue) and bad losses(Red).

3 Golden Point games - We won all of them.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I recall us having a very stable line-up through the first half of the season.

We weren't impacted negatively by State of Origin, maybe slight benefit?

Our momentum dropped off in the last quarter, winning only 4 of our last 9 games*, one against the Warriors by golden point.

Continuing the assumptions, we benefit from keeping the same squad together (minus Green) which counteracts to a degree the improvements of the other teams.

We don't benefit from the disruptions to the spines of the clubs because of the moves of Cronk, Pearce, Moylan, because we also have a disrupted spine without a Cronk, Pearce, etc., coming in.

Positives: Jake another year more confident and hungry, Taupau being Taupau, the passion of (another) Thompson, AFB, Siro healthy, Lussick fulfilling potential?

Negatives: We might be lacking that "mongrel" player or two out there saying...we have them down by 10 let's make it 30. But my TV might not be showing that.

So, if, good forwards improving and staying on the field, minimal injuries with backs, 5/8th (being good defensively) and Cherry combining well (and having to defend less), Walks back to his old self running freely, defensive coach given priority over off season, Trent learning from last year (peaking team later in season), a goal kicker kicking above competition average, referees referee every play on it's merits, a few great players in opposition sides towards the end of their careers, some teams will play badly, some teams we will make play badly, I say 8th with potential upside.


*or 9 of our last 14 if you're a glass half full kind of person


Info in spreadsheet above from the great website RUGBY LEAGUE project:
Link: https://www.rugbyleagueproject.org/seasons/nrl-2017/manly-warringah-sea-eagles/summary.html

Nice analysis

 

[globaleagle]

We weren't impacted negatively by State of Origin, maybe slight benefit?

I've noticed that whilst we generally don't lose too many players to origin, the nrl always gave us a bye so as we never took on the stronger teams when they were weakened by soo.

So the nrl made sure that their darlings- the storm/broncs...(you guys know the drill)... never had to play big bad Manly when Manly were at full imposing strength.

Believe it.....................
or not!

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

Nearly 30% of us think we can finish top 4!!

Keep them votes a coming!

 

[globaleagle]

Should Dan close this poll just to see Mark's head explode?

1) Yes
2) No

vote now!

lol

 

[Woodsie]

Should Dan close this poll just to see Mark's head explode?

1) Yes
2) No

vote now!

lol

I vote to close it #nextweek

 

[Mark from Brisbane]

I vote to close it #nextweek

Really it should be closed next Friday night, and then revisited at the end or near the end of the year!

 

[Harvies elbow]

4-8 or better for me.
We'll make the 8. We play better when we are written off.

 

[torana355]

Alot rides on how DCE goes with Croker. If they gel well I think a top 8 position is achievable.

 

[Wombat64]

Nearly 30% of us think we can finish top 4!!

Keep them votes a coming!

Love to see it but it aint going to happen and Mark, you know it. Well string some good wins but we'll still be just as likely to drop a few in a row as well. We'll be up and down like the last few years and we'll still have the odd game where we leak too many points and lose concentration.

I'll be happy to be still in there towards the business end of the season, hope we've unearthed a few future stars, no injuries and we win at least most of our games at Brookie. ****, I hate it when the fortress is a bouncy castle.

For those thinking top 4? I need a delusional emoji rating thing. Top 4. No chance.